Wednesday, March 29, 2006

廣州免費報紙4月底出籠

免費報紙的風潮將會進一步吹襲中國大陸,繼上海《解放日報》2003年與上海地鐵合作,推出《i時代報》後,廣州地鐵亦已決定4月底,於廣州地鐵線推出免費報紙。這份報紙將會是《廣州日報》與廣州地鐵合組公司經營,暫定每日發行量約為30萬份左右。

褟中怡估計,這份報紙大有機會成功搶灘,原因很簡單,廣州現時只得4份大報(包括《廣州日報》、《南方都市報》、《羊城晚報》及《信息時報》),面對讀者接近1,000萬人,市場空間顯而易見。另一方面,國內報紙廣告費比香港報紙隨時高出10倍、8倍,以一般免費報紙人手大多只有50至60人計算,盈利前景應該相當不俗。

國內3大城市(北京、上海及廣州),目前已各有不同形式的免費報紙,其中北京市場比較特別,現在兩份免費刊物名為《前程》及《職場》,均為提供職業、招聘資訊的小型報紙。

雖說免費報章在內地有極大發展潛力,但始終每份報紙都是錢,過分揮霍只會失敗收場,其中收費報章《北京廣播電視報》,本來在市場上一直處於優勢,但數年前被對手《中國電視報》超越,於是決定與《北京青年報》及《北京晨報》合作,以免費方式贈閱予該兩報讀者,止住下滑趨勢。

去年1月,《北京廣播電視報》再下一城,向北京城區240萬戶家庭免費贈閱,這令它一躍而成北京最大報章,發行量比本來的前三位報紙的總和還多。可是,在廣告量不足的問題下,該報終在05年4月初宣布中止「免費午餐」。

人長命了,誰得益?

根據美國史丹福大學(University of Stanford)最近所進行的一項研究顯示,在醫學技術突飛猛進的情況下,人的壽命越來越長。到了2050年,人的平均壽命會比現時延長一倍。現時百歲人瑞是罕見,但到日後,可能滿街都是百歲人瑞。

不過人的壽命越來越長,帶來的新問題亦越來越多。人的退休年齡越來越遲,可能要做到八十五歲才可以退休。不過,遲了退休不代表延遲衰老,人在無慢性疾病困擾下能夠生活的年歲,會和現在差不多。

如果史丹福大學所做的研究推測正確的話,在這種滿街都是人瑞的新社會,最受惠是藥廠,因為不少人仍要受到慢性疾病困擾下繼續搏殺,如果沒有新藥物、新療法支持,怎可能繼續搏殺,去等到八十五歲退休?

人越來越遲退休,那生產那一類藥物的藥廠最好搵:生產慢性病藥物為主力的藥廠,特別在心血管疾病、糖尿病、癌症、慢性疾病藥物為主力的藥廠。像擁有現時全球最流行降膽固醇藥膽固清(Lipitor)專利的輝瑞藥廠(Pfizer,PFE.NYSE),在上年年底打贏了專利權官司,擊退了印度一間藥廠對專利權的挑戰,可以保住專利權到2011年。加上又推出了吸入式胰島素Exubera,大大減少了注射胰島素的麻煩,可以與胰島素市場兩大傳統壟斷者禮來(Eli Lilly,LLY.NYSE)和Novo Nordisk(NVO.NYSE)一較高下,輝瑞針對老人病為主的產品方向,長遠可以看好。如果輝瑞可以成功出售消費性非處方藥品部門(旗艦產品是李斯德林漱口水),就更理想。

另一方面,未來投資安老院的人有福了,因為八十五歲退休後,人仍有十多年,甚至廿多年的退休日子要過。若然百病纏身,如果不住在有醫護人員駐守的安老院,且看日子都相當難過。因此,未來老人院可能比開幼稚園更好賺。

現時不少醫療集團,都同時投資護理安老院,卓健(0593.HK)旗下有八間安老院,有關業務成功在二零零五年首六個月轉虧為盈。照人均壽命越來越長的大趨勢看,長遠前景可以看好,但短期而言,由於租金升勢又起,要在短期獲厚利並不容易。

趁低吸納內地人壽股

國企今日表現繼續強勁。幾間重磅的金融公司如交通銀行(3328),中國人壽(2628),以及平安保險(2318)也創新高。雖然受到外資入股國內市場的影響,不過中國人壽的保金收入在1月上升了23%,較平安的14%高。集團去年將焦點放在推銷邊際利潤較高的風險型保單,導致保費增長放慢。單看一月的數字,今年的情況應會有所改善。另一個正面因素是准許投資國外市場,這可增加國內保險公司在投資以及對沖時的彈性。加上投資組合不斷增大,人壽公司應是趁低吸納的對象。

從另一角度看,國內銀行股的風險則相對較高。交行有滙控(005)作後盾,而08年後亦可能成為大股東,情況可能較佳。不過製造業以及地產相關行業佔國內銀行的貸款組合比重不低,日後一旦這些行業的增長放慢,將會影響到貸款增長。更甚者拖欠情況嚴重的話或會影響到銀行的壞帳比率,相對而言風險亦較大。

雖然長遠看好,但亦不可忘記短期的投資風險。現價實際上並不便宜,尤其是國內銀行的股本回報率並非特別突出。

一個國家經濟增長是否理想,最簡單的除了看稅項外,電力增長亦是一個指標。經濟好,用電自然增加。投資電力股可以是一個選擇,不過在煤價上升以及電力價格不是以市場為考慮因素的同時,電力股的盈利表現未必一定與需求掛鈎,因此投資電力設備製造商如上海電氣(2727),東方電機(1072),以及哈動(1133) 的潛力可能更大。

有傳指國內最大的電力設備供應商上海電氣計劃分拆部分機器製造業務上市,集資1.5億美元。電力設備比重最高,相信不會是分拆的目標,餘下的包括機電一體化設備以及交通設備等。東方電機則為國內最大的水力發電設備生產商。既然中國希望減少污染,減少用煤發電亦對水力發電有利。
(23-02-06 刊於《am730》)

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