Wednesday, April 09, 2008

歐美新股急凍

大市升得多,就要喘氣,但半新股就威威,像中國鐵建(1186)孭上當年小小超那間盈科數碼動力的上市編號,股價卻未見像小小超揮魔術棒般飛升,甚至一度破底,的確傷了投資者的心。不過,若果是持有作中線投資的話,相信又會笑開顏,因為昨日逆市升2%至12.22元,較招股價10.7元累增14%,算有交代。

至於中國旺旺(151)、宏華(196)、新傳媒(708)和興發鋁業(098)股價亦齊升,惟前面3隻股份股價依然潛水,而興發和昨日股價下跌至3元的陽光能源(757)則仍有帳面利潤。

其實,今年新股氣氛認真慘淡,不計從創業板轉主板掛牌的股份,整個首季只有上述6隻股份能夠成功掛牌,對比去年熱鬧的場面,實感大不如前。

即使遠方的歐洲金融環境也不好過,羅兵咸永道份報告已話,今年第一季只有70間公司招股集資,對比去年同期有139間公司上市,足足少了近半,這還不止,如果望望新上市公司總值,由07年的106億歐元(約1,297億港元),只剩得今年首季的19億歐元(約232億港元),更大幅縮水82%之多!你話投資賓架靠收集資金額的一個百分比作為佣金,若果金額縮水,那份收入豈不……

有趣的是,按集資額計,竟然74%資金流入並非來自歐洲的企業,或許內地公司也分了一杯羹。

美國的金融環境本來已不好過,估不到首季更只有27間公司掛牌,比去年同期亦跌了57.8%,幸好有信用卡公司Visa上市巨額集資,拉高整體公司總值,較去年同期大增近1倍至174億歐元(約2,129億港元)。

諷刺的是,新興市場仍蓬勃,波蘭的華沙證券交易所於該段期間,成功上市的公司數目竟然有增無減,合共有18間之多,增長50%,可見市場交投不俗。

公司招股時間短暫,遇上冷風,或者多間公司同時搶錢的話,要成功「捉住」投資者eyeball,就要諗計,廣告促銷就是其中一種吸引散戶的方法。據AdmanGo統計去年1月至今年3月底止,本港有36隻新股花了約3.77億元登廣告。要在一段時間內達成最大廣告效應,認真有難度,幾日後,公開發售結果揭盅,成績好與壞立見。

當然,市況確構成主要因素,且看花費最多的首三位分別為中國旺旺、碧桂園(2007)及恒大地產。旺旺為上市所花廣告開支高達1.34億元,而碧桂園亦動用7,041萬元催谷,總算成功登陸主板市場。至於上月招股的恒大地產原來截至3月底的廣告開支也高達5,158萬元,特別是2月的廣告開支更佔2,415萬元,差不多佔一半比重,奈何最終胎死腹中,無法上市,出手闊綽也於事無補。不過,若果恒大重新招股,廣告商是不是又可以多一筆收入呢?

(4月9日刊於《am730》)

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