Wednesday, January 30, 2008

喜中有悲

國企股確令人振奮,動輒盈利以倍數增長,禤中怡見到中資銀行股(並非隻隻也有盈喜的)話盈利大增後,昨日輪到蝕錢的北人印刷(187)和洛陽玻璃(1108),齊齊報喜,話07年業績可望恢復盈利,認真可喜可賀,但洛玻股東仍愁眉苦面,因該股受母公司佔用資金影響,其H股股份自06年10月已經開始停牌至今,去年連控股股東也改由中國建築材料集團持有,而單是去年那一個大升浪,洛玻股東就無法嘗到,見到公司賺錢,股票被綁就夠慘了。

至於金融龍頭股中國人壽(2628)終於也發出盈利預期大增的通告,但望望增幅,按中國會計準則計算,才升逾50%。咦!若以06年度賺143.84億元(人民幣,下同)計,豈不是只逾215.76億元,但若果心水清,找首3季份業績報告看,發現當時純利也有246.96億元,那麼第四季的盈利跑到哪裡去?如果減一減,第四季業績不是見紅嗎?

唯一可解釋的,就是內地股市重創,手頭那些證券投資也被波及,價值一縮水,來自投資收入便大降,影響整體業績,形成不穩定因素。基本因素而言,始終有一定業務實力,所以成為四叔愛股,但想再有盈利大升的日子,恐怕要看內地股市表現,以及業務多元化的成果有多大了。

國企股受歡迎,港交所(388)自然順應民意,推出小型恒生中國企業指數(小型H股指數)期貨,並已獲證監會批准,可望於3月31日登場。今時今日,甚麼也要講包裝,所以港交所也擬定好一連串推廣小型H股指數期貨計劃,包括搵輝立商品(香港)、新鴻基期貨及大福期貨三家期交所參與者合作,舉辦網上交易比賽。

當然,無獎品怎有吸引力,所以港交所自掏腰包,安排遊戲的獎品為總值15萬港元的金牌,若果港交所早早買入獎品,他日勝出比賽的大贏家,相信可以拿到的獎品值必水漲船高,皆因金價又彈起嘛!

現時大家向內地看,國企股指數期貨交投亦不俗,昨日即月國指期貨成交合約逾8.7萬張,其中有部分相信屬轉倉活動所致,但對比其他產品如H股金融指數期貨、新華富時中國25指數期貨等「零」成交表現,可見該產品確屬港交所近年成功的投資產品。

再看小型恒生指數期貨(俗稱「細期」)推出後,反應亦可以,昨日成交量逾3.7萬張。由於每點上落為10港元,更重要的是,買期貨著重整個形勢布局,並非純粹受公司業績、管治水平等較細微成分所左右,加上市場對手不少,較難像四五線股般,容易被大戶玩弄,自然吸引散戶。

不過,日後,多一種小型期貨,講聲細期可能惹誤會,或許小型恒生中國企業指數期貨索性叫「細H期」或「細國期」吧!

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