Friday, January 25, 2008

請綁好安全帶

「Fasten Your Seatbelts」這條題,即是「扣上安全帶」,是嘉信理財首席投資策略員Liz Ann Sonders對美股走勢的形容,估不到同樣適用於港股現狀,畢竟重挫又反彈後,好壞消息頻傳,令市場神經拉緊,擔心自己站錯邊,隨時賺變蝕,形成兩邊走,且看即月期指上下波幅更達1,534點,成交合約比前日反彈逾2,000點略降,但仍逾11.6萬張,就知道交投中間,好友和淡友就像玩「變臉」國粹,如不扣上安全帶,全力應戰,隨時被拋落車。


不過,即使如何炒炒賣賣,也不及法興那位年輕交易員幫公司一鋪清袋那般厲害,貶眼輸562億港元!不知道有多少個「零」(答案是8個),諷刺的是,對法興來說,一個零就足夠,因為甚麼也沒有了。幸好該公司老本仍厚,若果找到水喉射住,仍可維持現狀,應不會像十多年前,霸菱銀行慘遭易手,但對手見到這種場面,怎會放棄收購可能,莫非管理層又向中國政府招手?


法興於06年度賺了52.2億歐元(約599億港元),可見盈利能力之高,但究竟投放在管理風險和內部監控的投資,實際又有多少呢?話雖有心犯案,管理層實難察覺得到,但買賣定必有單據和記錄,只要從盈利中撥多些少資源,加強監察交易情況,即使成本上升,起碼可以減少巨額損失,今次事件就真的是因小失大,甚至可以形容是,比個人理財態度還差。


另一邊廂,見到中信嘉華銀行找來吳杰斐(Geoffrey Walsh)做首席風險管理總監,確實見到香港的銀行,也肯正視這種並非搵錢,但不會讓公司蝕大錢的工作。他曾於GE消費金融擔任亞洲區規管事務主管,有逾30年經驗,相信可幫助監察內部運作。


回想起當年中銀一連串金融醜聞,嚇怕投資者,後來中國銀行(3988)聘任前滙豐銀行(香港)信貸風險總監董樂明(Lonnie Dounn)擔任信貸風險總監,中銀香港(2388)亦找恒生銀行(011)前信貸主管張祐成出任該行風險總監,令人產生無限憧憬。可惜的是,次按又籠罩中國銀行,更要澄清話計入次按債券減值準備後,純利仍有增長,但恐怕不足以話大賺了,可見請一兩名猛將,亦不代表一帆風順,靠的是緊密的組織和有效的監察系統。


可知風險管理這種原始營商原則,分分鐘比賺錢更重要,因為企業管理得好,簡單而言,即使面對逆境,公司不會有過多存貨賣不掉,更可控制現金流,最低限度也能應付過來,倘若寬鬆了事,就像美國次按般隨便借錢,試問口氣再大的花旗集團,也要低頭找人入股了。這種理財態度,同樣適用於個人身上,避免過分花費(過多賣不出的存貨),控制現金流,自然可安睡到天明。


(1月25日刊於《am730》)

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