Monday, January 21, 2008

大師醒你

大家都是派錢,但際遇各有不同。美國喬治布殊總統終於大灑楊枝甘露,準備派錢,希望救市,但始終無解決核心問題,就是信貸危機。至於香港特區政府則因為庫房滿瀉,財政盈餘料見千億元,故此也要派錢,否則被人叫守財奴。


不過,港股走勢卻與美股一樣下挫,莫非今年投資環境如此惡劣?摸不通,最好找高人相助,所以禤中怡昨日走去聽由滙豐銀行和東方匯理銀行舉辦的投資講座,因為嘉賓有投資者喜愛的曾淵滄教授、東方匯理的李藹欣(Anita)和中原集團主席施永青也,有些值得與讀者分享。


曾教授用轉勢,及「先苦後甜」形容今年投資市場,更一針見血話布殊總統的退稅政策要順利通過國會一關,最快也要下半年才有望落實派錢,而國民在如斯經濟前景下,拿到錢的恐怕也不一定增加消費,反而會儲起來。另一方面,減息效果也要待6月後才浮現出來。


至於內地宏調,他認為只會愈來愈激烈,皆因北京有奧運,內地政府避免過分炒作,就要冷卻經濟,待奧運熱潮過後,若經濟真的轉弱,才放鬆控制,重新啟動增長引擎。當然,投資者最關心的是如何揀股,曾教授的心法是:「盈利是最後支持股價的因素」,況且今年個別行業仍有好消息,當中可考慮地產股,因一手樓供應不足,以最近數據顯示,每年平均才有1.1萬伙供應,但去年一手盤就賣1.9萬伙,而且樓市周期較長,故地產股跌了的話可博反彈。至於另類可考慮的,就是不受宏調影響的基建股。


施老闆對樓市看法與曾教授相若,但表明若果在部署投資時,忽略美國轉勢,分分鐘犯錯。這位早已叫人買磚頭的投資老手更認為通脹升及息口跌外,更重要的是,金融經濟體系相當龐大,手上資金要找增值渠道,故資金流入樓市,樓價愈升,就愈多資金流入,但警告要注意投資者入市比例,兼空置情況,幸兩者仍處低水平。


至於Anita更講明今年市況反覆波動,預料反覆向上。她建議投資者要審慎揀股、更要在入市投資窩輪前,認清楚自己是想博反彈,抑或是趁低吸納,博中長線上升。短線投資的話,應選較貼價的認購窩輪,因為行使價同正股價貼近的話,窩輪價對正股敏感度會較高。


在實際操作時,她提醒投資者要嚴守止賺及止蝕,切記不要「溝貨」,並提出一些可能會忽視的地方,像某類窩輪引伸波幅約50%至60%時,倘有隻只有逾40%時,不要以為特別便宜,相反可能是發行商沒有做對沖,結果可能是發行商不開價,或將買賣差價拉闊,股友們便難即時套現獲利。各大師的建議看似簡單,但要嚴格遵守,的確相當考功力,要注意!


(1月21日刊於《am730》)

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