Wednesday, January 16, 2008

魔鬼就在細節中

見到台灣加權指數昨日大升3.13%,其他亞洲區股市卻全線遍紅,就知道民主選舉的好處,因為如果當權者不濟,大家可以用選票將他轟下來,和平、簡單。


在港上市的台資股更成逆市奇葩,僑福企業(207)再彈近54.2%,見2.76元,但成交額只有891萬元,不能作準。至於新股統一企業中國(220)則對辦,有1.18億元成交,收市升近9%,報5.94元。富邦銀行(636)也升逾5%至6.01元的一年高位。當然,並非隻隻台資股都受惠,裕元(551)和富士康(2038)兩隻藍籌股就要回落逾1.5%和5.6%。


至於前日提到獨立非執行董事齊齊「起身」的峻凌國際(1997),股價走勢就更恐怖,周一復牌已再急挫22%至0.95元,成交股數較上周五增500多萬股至逾1,226萬股。


當晚即有網友留言,提出怎樣看峻凌前景?管理是否真的出現了很大問題?如持有該股股票,是否應該立刻止蝕離場?禤中怡知道不妙,已立刻回覆,雖然只懂拾人牙慧,但仍同網友講,大多數投資專家均建議嚴守止蝕位,而更重要的是,應專注物色具增長潛力的優質股份。


好了,該股昨日即表演狂潮,成交股數一下子大增1.9倍至3,603萬股,股價更曾跌穿0.8元,收市亦僅見0.82元,又不見了約13.7%。如果持貨者不願止蝕,真的不知怎算。若果以為股價跌得多,昨日純粹想入市搏反彈的話,結果如何,此為一例。


不過,奇怪的是,該股股價周一股價大跌22%,卻水靜鵝飛,未有任何解話,直至昨日股價再挫,成交再增,才刊登股價和成交量不尋常波動的通告,莫非跌13%較跌22%重要?不用刊登通告解釋?真的想不通,解不透。


另一個未看透的,就是花旗集團(Citigroup Inc)那份業績報告。表面看,無論撥備和裁員人數均比之前傳聞為少,真的不得不佩服那些金融界高人,竟然想出這種預先張揚的「最壞消息」,然後變成「好消息」。


不過,所謂魔鬼就在細節中,當中有一項Credit costs,或叫作信貸支出,增加54.1億(美元,下同)(約422億港元),而大部分更來自美國市場,包括為該國個人信貸支出便佔41億元,更壯烈的是,其中要為貸款損失儲備作33.1億元的支出,即收回機會有限,情況大為惡化。該集團解釋是無論樓按、無抵押私人貸款、信用卡和汽車貸款斷供情況都有增加,且大環境趨向轉差,樓市亦下滑等。


花旗面對如此場面,試問其他銀行股怎可不跟隨,相信齊齊盡做撇帳,實行將基數大為下調,為日後業務回升做好準備,亦好向新股東有交代。若果真的如此,當然可喜可賀,但若經濟環境確實惡化,並蔓延至消費市場,有關支出可能持續向上,故這個隱藏的炸彈要多加注意。


(1月16日刊於《am730》)

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