Wednesday, January 02, 2008

揸死等死

人人有預測,禤中怡就不便亂講,當然不明朗因素如次按危機、地緣政治風波等大家都知,但如聯儲局前主席格老所講,最驚的是未知的不明朗因素,所以時刻要有危機感,望遠一點,才可避開衝擊。


雖然局部地區的戰事和政治動盪,對商品價格構成影響,但全球大致和平,息口非高,通脹未有嚴重惡化,而大家努力工作,累積財富情況未變,資金續找出路,像南韓股票基金市場規模於07年已大增1.47倍至1,226億美元(約9,562億港元),可見大家仍樂於投資。


這種趨勢套用在整個亞洲區來看,相信短期不會改變,區內投資者繼續受惠經濟向好,即使一般散戶,起碼有份工,甚至可揀份前途更好的投効,可見投入股市債市和樓市的資金,只會有增無減(薪酬有調高,投資金額又是否要相應提升一點呢?)最重要的是,大家只要肯儲蓄,肯投資,資金市左右大局,繼續為市場提供動力,讓基金經理有更多彈藥買貨,或者有更大壓力去物色投資機會。


當然,投資也要講分析,並非藥石亂投。禤中怡早前講完「聞風喪膽」,話有上市公司不斷集資抽水,有網友在我的博客內道出辛酸史,話自己幾年前持有威利控股(273)前身的股份以萬股計,豈知股份合併後,現只餘不足100股,沽貨也不能收回投資成本,已在自己的帳面上撇帳。


禤中怡在新年伊始,大家興奮慶祝之際,又要潑冷水。投資當然有可能出錯,最重要是盡快撤退,但見到網友持貨多年仍不捨不棄,或許仍有一絲希望,可惜泥沼愈踩愈深,最終沒頂,的確是慘痛,但絕對是值得反思的好教訓。


這名網友更批評證監會為何不採取措施,保障投資者利益。網友更建議公司若在一段時間持續虧損,更應終止有關公司的上市地位。對於網友批評監管機構的問題,大家早已看得一清二楚,究竟監管者又是否看得見呢?


另一方面,曾聽過這種意見,話買入一些業務陷低潮,或需重組的股票,只要翻身,股價就大升,可以博一博。簡單的例子莫過於電訊盈科(008)這隻藍籌股。電盈當年因合併關係,令財務狀況由坐擁百億元現金,變成負債急增,需設法減債,如出售資產,甚至集資頻仍。


電盈股價持續走低,大家卻視為股價已屆谷底,有機會反彈之兆。見到這個例子,禤中怡想問大家,有否分析清楚公司的實際狀況,甚至是市場環境呢?為甚麼電盈股價會如此低殘,甚至表現差於大市?


禤中怡認為與其等股價反彈,倒不如去發掘好股,投資於業務增長中的公司,若果年年有實質盈利表現,行業仍有前景,即使股價貴了一點,損失機會相對較低,加上管理層定必有一定遠景,怎樣也不用擔心變廢紙吧!


(1月2日刊於《am730》)

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