Tuesday, December 18, 2007

空軍狂轟猛炸

所謂「爛船都有三斤釘」,何況是曾經在金融世界呼風喚雨的格老,他的簡單兩句「美國經濟有滯脹早期跡象」,以及「美國經濟有50%機會出現衰退」,整個亞洲股市就被震散,淡友樂於放長線釣大魚。


恒指早段已跌穿27,000點,本來在26,800點頂住,輕微回升,可惜無力推上,反而掉頭再插,下午復市更即挫200點,至於期指全日更跌逾1,000點,較現貨再低水約100點。地產股之前捧上天,今日就接近打回原形。


未知九龍倉(004)管理層是否如此未卜先知,以每股30元作供股價,昨日該股跌幅為藍籌之冠,大瀉9.26%至39.2元收市。要注意的是,尾市還有兩宗大手成交,以每股39和39.05元各沽4.3萬和4.2萬股,涉資各達逾160萬元,莫非大戶續看淡,否則為何如此不計成本地先走貨?


另一個須注意的因素是,大市沽空情況好像有回升跡象。上周四(13日),港股沽空總額突破100億元,經最後修訂後為107億元,隨後於上周五,被沽空股份為306隻,所涉沽空額則顯著回落至75.7億元。


不過,昨日港股沽空額卻較上周五微增至77.45億元,而更重要的是所涉沽空股份降至263隻,可見火力逐漸集中在部分股份。藍籌當然不能倖免,港交所(388)所涉沽空金額最大,達約5.3億元,至於兩隻藍籌地產股長江實業(001)和新鴻基地產(016)沽空額也分別逾4.89億和2.47億元,而被市場看淡的滙豐控股(005)沽空額也有逾3.3億元。


沽空額若續增,可能「空軍」想進一步推低,加上有消息跟進,只要繼續有次按壞消息公布,大家原來樂觀的氣氛也會被冷卻,況且指數若於明年初處低位,可為來年回報設定較低基礎,基金經理又怎不齊心合力呢?


至於格老的言論中,除了衰退機會由30%增至50%外,其實新意欠奉,況且翻查資料,若果有留意一些財經專家的意見,多少可預見今日滯脹危機。


今年4月,國際貨幣基金組織(IMF)首席經濟學家穆薩已曾提出,美國經濟明顯大幅放緩,全球其他地區經濟接近甚或高於增長潛力,肯定今明兩年全球經濟增長恐放慢,但美國經濟在明年陷入衰退機會比先前估計略高,但不會高於格老當時所估計的30%,最有可能出現的情況是溫和的滯脹。


對國際財經獨具視野的王冠一兄,於今年4月已提出美國經濟隱現滯脹情況,至於有「末日博士」稱號的麥嘉華於5月已曾質疑美國的通脹計算方法,認為實際數字或較政府公布的為高,可見當地已陷入滯脹年代。以上所見,其實早有人吹響警號,只是大家浸淫在股市屢創新高的亢奮狀態之中,未有察覺而已。


(12月18日刊於《am730》)

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