Thursday, December 13, 2007

牛唔飲水的道理

伯老響應大市,再減息0.25厘,但投資者嫌減得少,因為市場認為應該減半厘才收貨,大戶趁機造藉口推低大市,財經專家亦順水推舟話減得不夠喉嘛!


美國聯儲局前主席格林斯潘在《華爾街日報》撰文話, 美國次按危機是「遲早會發生的事」, 因為全球經濟經歷前所未有的增長時期,導致投資者低估風險。落了台的高官當然要為自己所建立的豐功偉績貼金,有損失都是投資者的個人問題。幸好格老也承認在位期間,息率處較低水平,可能助長美國房地產價格泡沫,但轉頭又話,發生次按抵押貸款的根源,實際上是全球經濟擴張所致,更認為聯儲局難以避免出現這個情況。他又預期當新建房屋被市場消化,樓價下滑趨勢結束,市場才會從危機中復甦。


格老的話要聽,但究竟等市場消化新屋,樓價下滑結束所需時間要多久呢?中間可能出現的悲壯場面,又應如何應付呢?這才是大家要思考的問題。


至於「牛唔飲水,㩒唔到牛頭低」這名句,認真貼切形容當年落力投資次按相關投資產品的賓架,所以不要怪格老的低息政策,而誘發出次按相關債券這類怪物了,況且美資歐資大行巨頭紛換人,股東無從追究。最新一單高層調動,就是花旗集團(Citi Group)剛揀機構客戶部總裁Vikram Pandit接任做集團新CEO。至於署理CEO Sir Win Bischoff則接替美國前財長魯賓做集團主席。這位66歲的老人家原來同香港也有淵緣,在1971年於香港出任Schroders亞洲的董事總經理,工作多久就無披露,只表示1983年回倫敦,若果期間在港上班,理應有12年時間花在亞洲市場,肯定熟悉這個市場,對花旗日後拓展大有裨益。


講到底,又是企業管治(Corporate Governance)問題,如果銀行投資審核部門做得嚴,怎會有銀行可以巨額撇帳100億美元(約780億港元),差點不相信,輸大錢的竟是一向被人視為經營保守的銀行業。


講開企業管治,本港部分上市公司的確令人擔心,像創業板公司浙江浙大網新蘭德科技(8106)上月舉行的股東大會,就決議案投票的票數,最初話有逾2.27億股,但數天後澄清只有1.91億股,足足少了逾3,000萬股,試問見到這種場面,怎不令人欷歔。


原來主板公司亦同樣「嚇人」,台和商事(1037)昨日公布中期業績,禤中怡見到中文版通告話:「本年度,除稅及少數股東權益後之溢利為九千五百萬港元(二零零六年:一億一千四百萬港元)」,嘩!以為半年就賺近億元,但禤中怡望望損益表,原來實際只賺952萬元,去年同期則賺1,145.7萬元!不仔細望清楚一點,隨時今日飛身撲入,屆時隨時榮升成為那些投資次按的賓架了。


(12月13日刊於《am730》)

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