Friday, December 14, 2007

亞洲次按風暴

當大家見到歐美央行聯手開水喉,齊齊借錢給金融機構,又是幾千億港元,氣勢一時無兩,簡直有點第二次世界大戰,盟軍在西歐展開的「The D-Day」,即著名的登陸諾曼第戰役。當年聯軍利用龐大船隊,不理死活,勢要搶佔法國灘頭,以便後繼的大軍能夠順利登陸歐洲各地,向德軍反擊一樣。


美國、歐洲、瑞士、加拿大和英倫銀行一致行動,反映次按衍生的信貸市場問題惡化嚴重,當然禤中怡希望像「The D-Day」的結果般,擊退納粹主義,但肯定的是,為了「打勝」這場信貸危機,「死傷枕藉」難免,大家需要付出的沉重代價究竟有幾多,肯定襟計。


不過,在付出這些代價前,禤中怡見到英國《金融時報》話,美國高盛集團(Goldman Sachs)已落實今年獎金安排,預計董事長兼行政總裁Lloyd Blankfein將佔最大比例,薪酬將增加30%至約7,000萬美元(約5.46億港元),而雷曼兄弟(Lehman Brothers)也表示向行政總裁Dick Fuld授予價值4,100萬美元(約3.2億港元)的限制股份,作為今年薪酬補償的一部分代價,更料明年公布現金獎金和其他款項,他一年總收入將超過5,000萬美元(約3.9億港元)!


為甚麼這些金融高手能獲厚祿?原來話他們成功採取對沖策略,抵消按揭相關證券的損失,雷曼和高盛都捱過信貸危機,遠比一些競爭對手表現為佳。以為好厲害,望清楚雷曼兄弟第四季盈利8.86億美元,比去年同期跌11%,原來為固定收入資產撇帳8.3億美元,代表盈利比原來chop了近一半,但因為比市場預期佳就算好消息,死未!


正當歐美失火,其實已靜靜地蔓延至亞洲市場,任總已出口術提出警告,相信以他的級數,睇完銀行提交的那盤數,已經心中有數,難得又提供一個競猜遊戲,要大家估出那一間是業績可能出現虧損的銀行,真的好玩!


除香港外,南韓也憂慮受類似打擊,當地央行最近已發表報告,話金融界也有巨大高危貸款,質素像美國次級按揭般,涉及高達34萬億韓圜(約2,864億港元)!原來當中有19萬億韓圜是借給貸款紀錄欠佳人士,佔銀行整體貸款9%。至於餘下15萬億韓圜則來自保險公司及非銀行的金融機構所提供的樓宇按揭貸款,所佔保險公司及非銀行的金融機構貸款比重更達25.1%,這些金融機構主要貸款予一些工作狀況不穩定,甚至已有一定債務的人士。由於今年按揭息上升,供樓支出增加,無法還款的話,後果堪虞。


經歷貨幣大幅貶值的金融風暴後,亞洲正面對次按風暴,陰霾已現,不得不提防,或許趁年底將至,重新檢討自己手上的投資組合,究竟應該趁低吸納(像淡馬錫和中東資金),還是準備防禦工具,等待登陸前的黑暗。


(12月14日刊於《am730》)

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