Wednesday, December 19, 2007

睇市靠自己

恒指又展現V型反彈,力度都不算小,因為從低位26,100點抽上逾600點,要注意或許是技術性反彈。


其中一個原因是,今次大市調整後,連四叔(恒基地產(012)主席李兆基)也不敢估年底恒指所處水平,原來估計年底見30,000點的預測數字,與昨日收市價比較,畢竟已相差近4,000點,要在今年僅餘7個交易日內達標,的確要坐火箭至得,因為基金經理要放假的,早已離場,兼且開始要埋數,故靠大戶推動向上不易。


從今次修訂,多少可見他老人家也聞到一些不好的味道,定必看見一些對股市影響深遠的地方,才會急急披露修正。至於他說明年股市走勢預測如何如何,同樣可視作預測,而預測是可以調整的,所以已經是後話了。


雖然他提出的投資建議,如推介或自己買入的股份都屬質素非差的目標,但亦不代表投資者要瞓身響應,因為做投資時,除了要聽取第三者意見外,其實還要自己做分析和學習,更要考慮自身的財政能力,盲目跟進隨時中伏。


四叔今次在短短十多日間,便勇於調整,或許有人會批評他俾錯貼士,甚至會話他「變了」,但要注意的是,他不是擔保必賺的,改變反而展示他敢於承認睇錯市,確是做大事的人。


美國股神巴菲特何嘗不是睇錯市,在05年,巴菲特更兩邊損手,先沽空美元,奈何美元匯價續升,就一鋪輸近10億美元(約78億港元),豈知待他清倉結算計數離場後,美國開始停止加息,歐洲加快議息步伐,日本又話要加息,美元匯價開始回落,變相令美國股神賺少一大筆。


近期就有早沽中石油(857)股份,只見他愈沽,中石油便愈升,一來一回,賺少了就是愧對股東,但看看今日中石油股價13.5元,與今年高位20.25元比較,足足回落了逾33.3%!最重要的是,究竟他將套現所得,如何運用及作那些投資,所謂資金有限,機會無限,其他投資回報可能比繼續持有中石油股份還佳,所以日後便要計一計其股本回報率(Return On Equity,ROE),即運用資金所產生的回報表現,且待巴郡公布業績便知真章。


昨晚見歐洲央行泵水高達5,000億美元(約3.9萬億港元),遠超原來規模達1.9萬億港元,反映銀行乾塘程度,更重要的是,如進一步惡化,銀行之間可能出現信心危機問題,大家在拆借市場都不想拆出資金,整個金融系統就會出問題,實屬風險因素之一。見到開水喉,股市就升,但且慢高興,中長線金融體系能否支持下去才是真正考驗,不要被短線波動左右對趨勢的看法。大家還記得早前憧憬美國聯儲局減息救市,美元匯價急挫,豈知市場竟然又轉軚話無得減息,美匯即彈,究竟那位高人出口術呢?


(12月19日刊於《am730》)

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