Monday, December 31, 2007

恒指撼低新興市場

明日就是2008年1月1日,大家已有準備迎接加價年。禤中怡和大家一樣,無得避免,兼且是雙重打擊,因為內地通脹嚴重,刊物價格同樣向上,若果有睇《經濟觀察報》的都知道,每份零售價由2元人民幣,加至3元人民幣,足足加50%!話雖每周出版一次,但其他刊物陸續加價可期,奈何禤中怡喜愛上網睇資訊外,更保留拿著份報紙揭來揭去的習慣,真的是知識有價。


幸好,粗略看看,直至上周五,今年全球股市似乎全線向上,只要肯做功課,相信回報抵銷通脹這個基本條件肯定冇問題,兼且有不錯收穫。單看港股表現已不俗,恒指一年間升了37%,以一個相對成熟的市場來說,表現絕對高分,相信恒成分股加入國企股這個決定應記一功。


看到美國道瓊斯工業平均指數只能有7.23%的升幅,以布殊政府如此落力(不是出手救次按嗎?)也只有這個表現,明年總統選舉,共和黨確實有危機。至於英國,接任首相的白高敦的際遇亦好不了多少,英國富時100指數,全年更只有4%漲幅,究竟明年會否變沉底,就要考這位前財相的功力,因為當地樓價已開始回落,財富效應萬一消失,好景能否可維持下去呢?


當然,偉大祖國的表現恐怕難有太多敵手,即使下半年宏調出動,亦只是將升幅調低而已。深圳綜合指數一年間就升了1.66倍!至於上海證券B股指數更厲害,竟有1.8倍增幅之多,豈止翻一番。不過,與這個半封閉市場比較,又似乎有欠公允。


至於早前有金融機構看好,可避開次按風暴的新興市場方面,首先算算亞洲區,泰國曼谷綜合指數大升26.22%,在消費信心疲弱、經濟增長放慢,以及政治不明朗環境下,依然有此表現,可見其活力甚強。


能夠拍住港股的,還有南韓綜合指數,全年累升32%。如果新選出的總統以經濟掛帥,又施政有效,絕對不能忽視這條小龍。較冷門的,當然首推基金喜愛的俄羅斯市場,當地主要股市RTS指數也向上29%,再看到巴西Bovespa指數大幅上揚39.6%,就知道市場有多熱。


以恒指表現來看,甚至與新興市場比較,隨時更勝一籌。不過,以上周五恒指收市報27,370點計,若果明年要保持今年相若升幅,恒指就要見近37,500點,莫非真的要靠奧運、港股直通車、恒指成分股加國企股……


題外話,禤中怡閱讀《am730》,知道CK的最新著作《人在中環》面世,即往書局望望,黑白色的設計絕對和旁邊彩色豔麗的其他書籍無得比,但重要的是文字有餡,尤其是書中最尾那篇「假如本書唔賣得」,卻見真情。禤中怡已手捧一本。


(12月31日刊於《am730》)

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