Thursday, January 03, 2008

奧運短跑起步

基金經理未歸位開戰,港股轉炒個別股份,像奧運概念股成為焦點,北京北辰(588)逆市大升12%至5.37元;北京首都機場(694)收市漲6仙,收報13.3元;北京發展(154)也微增0.2%,甚至連北京時裝(761)也上揚高達11.1%至1.7元收市,差點公司名逢有個「北」字都可逆市向上,為甚麼是差點呢?因為主要業務在內地首都的北京控股(392)卻回落2%至36.3元。


有趣的是,北京時裝其實從事皮革等業務,主要是出口往香港和歐洲等地,也算奧運概念?抑或張冠李戴?


內地股市同樣精彩,奧運股、北京相關股份更成為主要漲停板的股份,港人較熟悉的,包括燕京啤酒和食北京填鴨的全聚德等,相信接近奧運前,大家都會跟勢炒作。


運輸股亦繼續發功,中國交通建設(1800)一日又彈6.3%至21.75元,更曾高見22元,距離歷史高位25.4元不遠,兼且有逾千宗大手成交配合,單是尾市1分鐘內就有約50單大手買賣,好像在21.65元掃逾1,700萬元貨,然後再用近1,200萬元,在21.7元買入53.8萬股,高位收市自然無問題,難怪成交額超過34億元,捧場客甚多。


當然,同類的新股中國中鐵(390)亦幫上不少忙,高見11.42元後,仍創收市新高,報11.3元,上升5.2%,成交額亦接近20億元,兩隻股份可謂淡市奇葩。


可惜,恒指儘管有地產股支撐,港鐵(066)更升7%,首破30元關口,收報30.8元,漲7.3%,還有新鴻基地產(016)、新世界發展(017)和太古A(019)齊逆市向上,但始終要在08年首個交易日跌252點至27,560點收市,繼續尋底。


禤中怡見到大行對今年多抱樂觀態度,預料恒指見35,000點,甚至歷史性破40,000點的亦大有人在,絕對是一片歡欣氣氛。當然,預測總含不明朗元素,只是大行的預測比散戶的「估計」有多些根據吧!


回望06年底、07年初,當時滙豐預料恒指見21,500點,港股評級更由「增持」下調至「中性」;大摩估計恒指於07年底見18,100點,而中銀和標普當時也料見22,800點。以上這些觀點,與07年底最終表現來看,真的是有一段距離。或許禤中怡也幫一幫忙,因為有意料不到的合資格境內機構投資者(QDII)、港股直通車等等利好因素帶動,便可以輕鬆為那個數字上的差距,解釋得一清二楚。


好了,今日人人如此看好,你又估恒指升近20%,佢又認為可以漲多一半,那麼現時恒指所處這個水平,理應屬超級低位,不大手掃貨,還待何時?令人費解的是,買盤卻未見十分強勁,大藍籌的股價更在跌,究竟大行是否要講一講,期間是否先經過大調整洗禮呢?究竟美國次按危機是否煙消雲散?


(1月3日刊於《am730》)

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