Monday, January 07, 2008

兩航大戰鬧劇

「兩航大戰」這場鬧劇快有結果,因為東方航空(670)明日舉行股東特別大會,投票是否批准發新股,引入新加坡航空(新航)和淡馬錫成為新股東,每股作價3.8元,而東航母公司亦認購新股,整項交易總值113.4億元。

中國國航集團(即國航(753)母公司)旗下中航有限,卻密密收集東航H股,變成持有12.07%H股股權,然後近期頻頻出口術,媒體亦樂於在新年伊始這個淡靜時間,齊齊參與這場大戰,甚至出現報道話東航和國航最終母公司,即國資委出面調停的傳聞,為交易添上大量不明朗因素。

中航有限更在東航股東特別大會舉行前夕,突然提出,將會建議每股不低於5元作價,出價比對手更豪爽,希望東航大小股東否決舊方案,然後取代新航和淡馬錫的戰略夥伴地位,認購原來配售予新航和淡馬錫的新股。

那麼,既然讓東航股東有更好的要約(offer),為甚麼是一場鬧劇呢?首先,中航有限手執顯著股權,內地《財經》雜誌更話中航有限已拉攏幾個機構投資者站在他的那一邊,相信要推翻新航入股議案難度不大,何不先否決議案,然後再提新方案呢?

此外,東航與新航商討多時才有這個方案,國航為何遲遲不出價,要待至股東大會舉行前才殺出程咬金般,更在投票前兩日才肯出價,以求「搶親」,奈何東航股東根本難以在短時間內作出取捨。

從股東立場看,無疑是價高者得,禤中怡亦覺得無可厚非,況且是正常商業行為,故中航有限倒不如爽快地提出具體建議,同時將兩份方案擺在東航股東面前考慮更佳。其實,作為一個理性的股東,不應單從金額去衡量,因為只要錢多,就可解決的就不是問題,還要看看新投資者對東航的貢獻,包括改善營運效益、提升品牌價值及未來發展優勢等,才是長遠持續經營之道。

其實,從基本因素來看,東航自己又的確唔爭氣,經營表現飄忽,03、05和06年度均錄得虧損,即使有盈利,像05年的邊際利潤亦不過是1.5%!試問怎不要找人泵水兼改善業務,否則市場進一步開放,只會變成國家的包袱而已。禤中怡曾經乘搭聯合航空回港,只見機上大部分均是內地同胞,好奇下問問一名「空中少爺」,佢話如果有得揀,內地同胞喜歡老外品牌,不會揀東航,尤其是飛美國線。從簡單幾句,可見東航經營捱打情況。

從這宗鬧劇可見,國資委好像袖手旁觀,若果今次同行收購真的成功,難保日後中國電信(728)母公司出錢收購聯通(762),從而進軍流動通訊市場,中國移動(941)母公司也可以買網通(906),讓國企用國家的資源去爭奪另一家國企,大戶見到這種場面,怎不開心等割禾呢?

(1月7日刊於《am730》)

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