Thursday, January 10, 2008

中美齊玩政策市

政策市又出動,今次主角是中美兩國,皆因齊齊要出手救自己的國民。


先講祖國,溫家寶總理愛民心切,實行不准成品油、天然氣、電力價格調高,而供氣、供水、供暖、城市公共交通工具等公用事業價格,甚至連學校的學費、住宿費收費標準都不得提高,並要保持醫療服務價格穩定,可見通脹猛於虎。


驟眼看,以為回復當年的共產主義,即一切都是在計劃經濟的控制範圍內,但今天內地經濟體系不可同日而語,加上在北京所制定的政策,單單要在南方地區能夠完全執行,恐怕已是天方夜譚,況且市場機制已成形,意味政府推出行政手段去壓抑物價的手法,若要收到一定效果,就要動用很大力度,空喊幾句訓令,收效成疑。


不過,石油股、燃氣股、電力股被政府一喝,恐怕股價今日難免受影響。中國燃氣(384)和港華燃氣(1083)昨日已逆市跌1.5%和0.7%,試問其他相關股份怎不遭殃。


政府的另一隻手又伸出,如中國人民銀行率先開工,要求對內地中西部地區和糧食及農產品主要產區,增加再貸款額度達100億元人民幣,集中將資金投放春耕生產資金不足地區,又讓農村信用社執行相對較低的存款準備金率,更可提前支取特種存款,增加資金來源,實行提高食品生產,但實際效果要顯現,也要等禾熟收割方可知吧!


另一個要注意的是,人民銀行話要銀行幫助奶牛養殖戶和奶產品加工企業解決融資困難,並追溯至06年發生還債困難的養殖戶,逾期貸款可延期,最好更免收罰息。至於有規模的企業申請信貸時,就要加快審批速度。蒙牛乳業(2319)若果要借錢,會否更方便呢?而養殖戶能生存,蒙牛可供收購原奶的渠道也增加,無論採購策略或進一步擴產也可加強彈性,惟該股昨日收市反跌近3%至28.15元。


那邊廂就更恐怖,《華爾街日報》話美國布殊總統準備帶一籃子刺激經濟方案做救市禮物,包括可能向每人退稅500美元(約3,900港元),希望刺激消費;同時又想給予企業在設備投資方面享有更多稅務寬減。這種開倉派米的做法或許可收一時之效,但核心問題如次按資產質素惡化、信貸信心減弱等始終未解決,更甚的是,打仗已消耗一大筆,還想再打腫面孔充闊佬,無論總統候選人怎喊改變,到時只得一個空庫房,莫非總統是魔術師?


其實,受美國經濟放緩影響,市場已憂慮企業在資訊科技的投資將減少,當中著名科技公司思科(Cisco)CEO錢伯斯上月已話來自美國銀行和汽車公司的訂單已大幅减少。科技諮詢顧問公司IDC更料今年全球高科技投資增長速度放慢,由07年的7%下滑到5.5%至6%。見到勢色不對,企業CEO還會貪稅務寬減這些小便宜嗎?


(1月10日刊於《am730》)

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