Thursday, January 17, 2008

勇者鬥大鱷

美國布殊總統和財政部長保爾森的魔法終失靈,樓市先倒,現在連美股也難逃厄運,究竟布殊總統是不是想像陳水扁總統般,無意讓自己的政黨贏得總統選舉?


美股急挫,亞洲股市怎會避得過這一劫,恒指昨日更像失去承托力般狂瀉,之前甚麼減息半厘旺地產股、又話企業去年業績佳,可以支持較高市盈率等利好因素,突然消失了般,只見沽貨不斷,藍籌地產股跌4%也絕不出奇。


不過,禤中怡身邊的朋友雖非超級富豪,只是尋常百姓,但個個似乎磨拳擦掌,基本的投資趨向是:現在是否屬合適時機入市?買甚麼貨最佳?現在滙豐控股(005)(昨日收市報115元)已經好「平」!


香港人確是見慣大風浪,即使是歷來第三大跌市,根本不視作一回事,也好像沒有擔心後市續向下,反而有此想法:「個市實升番嘅!」查問之下,部分之前在恒指破30,000點後已無從入市,今日累積下來,已經不見了近6,000點,可見已跌了很多,現在是入市好時機,況且四叔更曾經話過,春季前,恒指將重見30,000點,試問怎不教人振奮。


那麼錢從何來呢?禤中怡發現稅務貸款息率一浪低於一浪,借10萬元,全年利息支出才近2,600元,而且今日稅務貸款並非純粹用作交稅,銀行計算貸款時,更不會用交稅金額去計算,乃以月薪的倍數去考慮,意味可借金額更多,形成借錢容易,成本看來很低的情況,自然讓人蠢蠢欲動,更促使有人會利用這筆「稅金」入市。不過,是否已考慮清楚,錢借了,日後需按月償還,倘若投資不幸失利,能否承擔後果呢?


見到這種場面,禤中怡又擔心投資者再度依賴祖國,畢竟去年一聲「港股直通車」,港股在大奇蹟日能夠反彈逾千點的景象依然歷歷在目,而金管局任總前日又突然表達已準備好港股直通車的言論,更令人惹揣測。


經過多月時間,內地確已進行大量教育工作,像內地書店的財經書籍部門,已排行一列列長長的書陣,《港股直通車》、《如何揀港股》等財經書籍任君選擇,加上內地傳媒落力做教育,現在打開內地報章,財經版已有曾淵滄及其他財經演員的專欄,撰寫和港股相關的資訊,讓內地投資者接觸港股。而先頭部隊QDII早已登陸香港,內地投資者自然希望可以動用更多資金湧入港股,屆時美資、歐資撲水回國,港股相信也會不受影響。


最後,禤中怡又想撥冷水,無疑港股已跌了很多,如果屬長線投資者,找到優質股票為對象,小注也無妨,但也要留意市場趨勢,兼且要衡量實力,避免成為大鱷點心。


(1月17日刊於《am730》)

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