Thursday, January 24, 2008

0.75厘的煙花璀璨

甚麼叫做曇花一現?且看美國大減息,港股和亞洲區股市大戶立即配合,蜂擁而出買貨,齊齊推高指數,恒指不但收復前日失地,即月期指收市更要比現貨高水125點,見24,125點。再看看成交額,逾1,563億元,的確有所增加,當中藍籌股更佔845億元,即54%比重,可見大戶多落力掃貨,才可將期指推高,之前任何壞消息,竟然靠減息一招就消失無形。不過,開頭已講明是曇花一現,像煙花一樣,代表亞洲股市可以用從死亡谷底邊略為喘氣去形容,因為歐洲股市就接不到亞洲那支上升棒,跌個反轉,開市已有3%、4%的跌幅,而美股開市後仍然要跌,就知道問題有多嚴重。


美國減息,美元匯價恐怕難獲支持,代表各貨幣兌美元匯價應轉強,或許英國經濟亦差,英鎊匯價變動或不大,但歐元匯價升值,歐元區起碼無入口通脹,歐洲央行一向最關心的通脹猛獸暫且可困在籠中,亦可能會接受這個現實。至於亞洲貨幣同樣受惠,中國和日本也樂於付鈔去美國入貨,中國國投和日本瑞穗已投資美國的金融機構。


還記得禤中怡提過美元套息交易嗎?面對如斯場面,大戶真的賺到笑,一邊享受借美元,僅需支付的超低息率,一邊賺匯率差價已有不俗斬獲。


問題是,歐亞兩地貨幣轉強,意味出口勢受挫,只要看人民幣升值,內地做廠的朋友叫苦連天就知,屆時經濟會如何呢?莫非又靠金融和服務業支撐嗎?賣多幾個基金計劃就代表刺激經濟?個市究竟靠甚麼支撐呢?


當然,始終是講時機,碰上超級大跌市,由嘉誠亞洲和中銀國際做保薦人的昌盛中國(1863)選擇在截飛前的上午,決定話不再繼續招股,豈知港股卻大幅反彈,兼氣勢如虹,奈何這陣及時雨實在來得太遲,保薦人可能只有苦笑。除了香港的新股外,遠在菲律賓的宿霧航空亦決定延遲招股集資逾22億港元的上市計劃。


不過,同投資界朋友談起昌盛這次「小產」,可說是受行業問題拖累,因為內地房地產股受樓市冷卻,政府加強調控(如徵收土地閒置費)等負面因素困擾,聽聞國際配售部分接獲的「大飛」只有幾張,實在是寥寥可數,難怪要放棄上市。倘若選去年招股,時機又是否合適呢?


至於另外3隻新股則賣不同概念,聽聞都可以勉強過關,因為賣點是熱門的零售、基建和能源行業,而且茂業(848)由大行高盛做保薦人,新福港(301)有大家族支持,而陽光能源(757)今日才截止認購,時間剛剛好。當然,看孖展認購反應就知道,有些新股零售認購部分,相信難以圓滿,可能要靠國際大飛幫補,最低限度是成功上市,「骨水」最重要。


(1月24日刊於《am730》)

10 Comments:

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我的美國客戶預計美國將於2008年第三季至2009年底衰退.這樣的預測總比每日不同的新聞會好一點.
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