Monday, January 28, 2008

對沖基金有難

內地大風雪,火車難開行,誤點到達已經慘,難為那些回鄉度歲、在戶外迎著寒風等上火車的民工。


禤中怡曾幾何時,也曾選搭火車,單人匹馬前往上海,作為人生體驗,幸好來回未有遇上阻礙,已算萬幸,但單在車上打發時間,也是一種考驗。看書、聽音樂和小睡外,其餘時間確是難熬。晚上最佳節目,就是往餐卡用膳,30多塊人民幣,就有一個小菜和白飯,味道也不錯,加上在搖搖晃晃中用餐,感覺確特別,且同枱的,卻是來自瑞典和尼日利亞的外籍人士,特別有趣。見到今次在車上捱過來的乘客,禤中怡完全明白他們的慘況,希望風雪早日結束。


不過,金融大風雪似乎愈吹愈烈,上周法興已經輸得一塌糊塗,事後市場話美國減錯息,認真諷刺。究竟這場金融事故的連鎖反應影響有多大,只要看看對沖基金的景況或許能略知一二。


Eurohedge統計顯示,一批對沖基金損失慘重,再望望英國報章,原來三分二以倫敦為基地的對沖基金,單是在上周一場股市浩劫,就不見了價值的4%至10%,最少有10隻對沖基金更採取了緊急措施,就是暫停贖回,避免情況惡化下去。為甚麼如此悲壯,皆因欠水也,以前找銀行幫手解決短期資金問題,待市況好轉便捱過去,奈何今日銀行亦睇緊自己的資金,對沖基金借多點也有難度,只好沽貨套現,是否喊著沽,相信大家心中有數。


歐洲市場吹淡風,英國有份報告更預測,單是倫敦市中心和金絲雀碼頭(Canary Wharf),便因金融危機而在今年失去多達2萬個就業職位,重災區當然來自金融業,恐怕份報告的「預言」很快實現。為甚麼?萬一對沖基金要結束,自然要遣散那些基金經理,試問他們怎能不加入失業大軍呢?其實,今年市場非佳,做對沖基金亦不一定叻到能夠避過一劫,以為懂做兩邊市,就萬無一失。且看到Hedge Fund Research Inc統計顯示,直至月中,全球對沖基金平均已輸了3%。美國也好不到哪裡,另一份報告話專門投資股票的對沖基金更損失5%,更重要的是,數據未包括上周那場大浩劫,相信份成績表見紅機會大、大、大。


如果對沖基金的投資者加入贖回潮,恐怕基金經理要「掟貨」套現,應付將資金交回給投資者,屆時又會不會展開新一輪「真正」的沽貨潮?


題外話,中環怡和大廈地庫早前大變身,美心旗下食店翻新再戰江湖,做快餐的Deli-O及提供日本菜的Miso已開張,最新投入服務的,就是大堂可設宴15席的怡翠軒,趕及農曆新年前做生意,可見美心掌握時間之準確。去年金融界生意好,相信賓架們擺春茗又多一個選擇了。


(1月28日刊於《am730》)

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