Monday, August 20, 2007

恐慌性買入

恒指上周五出現的「高速過山車」,相信談足一個星期都未完,單是那些大戶如何不問價地拋售股票,又是那些能人異士出手力挽狂瀾,大力抽上,就已經是一個很難解的「謎」。


這就是市場可愛之處,當有人極度看淡,偏有人感樂觀接貨。事後大家努力找「死因」,除了基金狂拋股份外,期指淡倉盤幫手推一把亦是推低大市的可能性之一。


之後,大市能夠迅速收復大部分失地,又估計與部分淡倉盤賺到肚滿腸肥,樂於平倉獲利離場,加上經過「恐慌性拋售」後,終於出現「恐慌性買入」,因為已跌得太過分,散戶惟恐落後於人,齊齊變買家,低位撈貨,「慌死買不到貨」。儘管恒指最終仍跌285點,但個別股份回升速度驚人,兼有斬獲。


有投資界朋友話,上周五炒藍籌好像炒二三線股般,如中國人壽(2628)股價跌至低殘不堪時,竟成功在25.55元掃入,之後股價回升,雖然全日收市計,依然下跌1元,但仍報27.6元,代表低位買入的,單日帳面即賺8%。以大價股來說,短短1日內能夠有此收成,回報已屬相當不俗,而入貨價位更只是稍高於全日最低位25.5元,反映成功在跌市中搵食。當然,沽出套現,方算真正落袋。


不過,並非個個如此幸運,因為指數大幅回落,有投資界朋友摩拳擦掌,但並非炒股,而是轉向炒指數。上周五日本股市午後急挫,恒指難免受拖累,所以向指數期權打主意,因為期權風險畢竟較炒期指為低,即使看錯市,蝕極有個譜,不會被夾死。奈何市況波動之急、之快,可能連莊家都好像未能即時作出反應,買賣差價拉闊,分分鐘無肉食。但想一想,大市已作轉變,最終當然是無功而回,只是換來一肚氣,或許要向港交所(388)問問原因了。


其實,禤中怡自上周三起,已開始被身邊朋友追問同一條問題:「可以入市未?」,因為連續3日,港股「腸胃」被次按和日圓套息拆倉搞得不舒服,大市無法止瀉,大家的入市渴望慾念就更強。


至於最關心的「入市」問題,禤中怡始終認為是做長線定短線,炒短線的,當然是自求多褔,望長線的,就要看形勢。美國聯儲局上周五出手,但並非注資那麼簡單,而是減貼現率,對當地銀行體系必然是好消息,奈何此際出招,卻又惹來「空穴來風」的不良氣氛,是否有甚麼不可告人的隱憂?此外,由於資金抽走已成既定事實,基金可以買貨的能力恐怕亦因被大量贖回而被削弱,而且日圓套息盤又見收斂,再失一個炒作資金來源,難怪有經紀甚至話要準備迎接寒冬,擔心交投縮減也。現時入市會否買貴貨就要看清楚了。


(8月20日刊於《am730》)

9 Comments:

At 4:02 PM, Anonymous Chris said...

有傳聞星期五下午乃中資資金入市掃貨
又有說是美國減貼現0.5%,所以即入貨~~

 
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