Monday, August 13, 2007

美國金融風暴

若果次按危機進一步引爆,恐怕這次輪都輪到稱為「美國金融風暴」,可能要讓美國人嘗一嘗當年亞洲金融風暴對亞洲國家所帶來的恐怖經歷。


還不健忘的話,亞洲金融風暴的結果是有關國家貨幣貶值、資產價格大幅下跌和失業率上升等,唯一好處就是無通脹,買東西便宜一點罷了。這種集體回憶實在真的不敢忘記,為自己的投資寫下警戒記錄,不要得意忘形。話雖美國人面對金融危機,但經濟全球化,美國人買少點東西,印尼和越南工人的生計分分鐘也受影響。


由於市場轉變太快,那些在金融市場呼風喚雨的財技高手也要俯首稱臣。像華爾街收入榜首的基金經理James Simons,去年收入15億美元(約117億港元),堪稱另類打工皇帝,可惜這位對沖基金經理透過持有的Renaissance Technologies經營兩隻對沖基金,自8月以來,有關基金價值已經不見了9%,認真弊傢伙!究竟今年這些基金經理能否再獲巨額花紅呢?


該對沖基金採用稱為「量化分析」(quantative analysis)的投資策略,這種簡稱「quant fund」的基金,當然包括利用融資和槓桿方式去參與股票投資以提升回報。基金的運作模式就是建立一套電腦投資模式,讓電腦利用已設定的標準等,計算有關上市公司價值是否值得買入,或者需要沽出,當然人手也可操控的。


好處是電腦不像人類般,受情感等非理性因素左右投資決定,且入市或走貨速度也較人手快。不過,若果設定的模式已存在問題,就可能出現投資失誤。由於利用電腦投資模式,所以「quant fund」實際運用的是那些贏錢策略,恐怕連專家都要花時間研究,何況是一般投資者,估計大家買的,都是James Simons這個大名而已,這亦是對沖基金採取絕對回報投資目標的結果,就是睇成績。


另一個問題是,這些電腦投資模式也不過是基於以往數據作為參考,相信在設計模式時,銀行水浸,借錢無甚麼大問題,但當出現今次類似這個次按危機時,銀根突然短缺,甚至要各地央行紛紛出手,相信總也想不到為電腦設定怎樣應變吧!


James Simons本身是一位數學物理專家,於越戰爆發時,曾擔任密碼破解工作,或許這個經驗幫了他,利用量化分析去發展成今日這個投資基金規模,價值260億美元(約2,028億港元),但今次可能要幫電腦修改一下了。


有投資界朋友話,第四季市況就會好轉,因為這些基金經理要拿Year End Bonus,所以定必拼搏進取,希望追回失去的部分。不過,如果自身難保,真的還會關注那份遙遠的Bonus嗎?


(8月13日刊於《am730》)

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