Friday, August 10, 2007

美500大憂衰退

港股昨日表演高位跳下的驚險場面,早段以為恒指可以挑戰22,800點,豈知要掉頭回落,收市反跌97點,即高低位上落也有近360點,以現時恒指所處水平來說,幅度未算太大,但反映淡友力量非同小可。不計泰國和印尼這些新興市場昨日也下跌,亞洲主要地區股市普遍向上,港股昨日可算是斯人獨憔悴,莫非大戶在高位進一步散貨?


美國次級按揭問題鬧得滿城風雨,除了美國本土的次按相關資產和基金受影響而出現大幅虧損,甚至清盤外,現在連法國最大銀行BNP這類金融機構亦飽受困擾。這也難怪,因為投資者擔心手上的財富會縮水,甚至憂慮會否如美國一些參與次按的基金般,最後一個仙都無得剩,當然先發制人,倒不如贖回套現,相信會更穩陣。


由於美國次按問題已進一步蔓延開去,除了歐洲市場外,亞洲市場已率先在股市浮現有關影響,究竟對區內信貸市場的影響又有多深遠,值得大家注意,但預料這支「針」又會再次狠狠地拮下來,今日港股恐怕都無運行,早兩日反彈逾600點後,可能一下子便會打回原形,大家要有心理準備迎接這個巨浪。


禤中怡早前拾人牙慧,講對沖基金看次按,將資訊與讀者分享。有讀者Andrew提到新觀點,值得讓讀者了解情況,故將原文刊載:


「好像很多人對次按的問題了解不深,只是光聽傳媒講其他傳媒的報道。有不見其人,只聞樓梯響的感覺。我是在內地做生產的,上星期我個美國客人(500大)從美國帶來了他們來年的需求預測。原來,他們已經對次按的問題進行了仔細的分析。從他們的分析來看,他們在2006年的時o候已經看出了這個問題,並在比較2007年第一季和第二季中看出,這個問題不是一個小問題,是一個持續性的影響美國經濟。他們在比較過去四十年的美國經濟來說,他們認為次按問題是不會比1974年的石油危機嚴重,但就會和1980,1982年的美國經濟衰退可比較。所以,他們已經認定次按的問題是會導致經濟衰退的,那你還在想甚麼? 」


Andrew所談到的500大,相信是指美國《財富》雜誌公布的500大企業,相信他們的分析多少也反映了美國大型企業本身對經濟前景的看法,畢竟是本地薑,更加有參考價值。


如果這些美國企業已有危機意識,可以先採取措施減輕有關影響的話,起碼不會從暴風雨中突然摔下來,惟一問題就是,究竟這個風潮有多大,實在難以估計。此外,如真的導致經濟衰退,亞洲出口往美國的生意又會否受打擊呢?


(8月10日刊於《am730》)

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