Thursday, August 02, 2007

對沖基金看次按

內地經濟增長因素不敵美國次級按揭的衝擊,更令香港這個號稱國際金融中心的股市也要「同聲一哭」,加入大跌市行列。與前日大升市一比,可見今日市場波動之激烈,恒指上落點數和幅度都有擴大跡象,相信即使是專業大戶,也不容易掌握這類像鐘擺般的短線大上大落情況,更何況是一眾散戶。


市場關心美國的銀行「閂水喉」,整個經濟運作循環就會終止,內地好像叫這個做「資金鏈斷裂」,即商業和金融機構無錢繼續投資,又要還錢,股市又怎能獨善其身呢?這次趁美國財長保爾森訪問中國期間,次按風暴才刮過來,可見主帥不在陣,淡友乘機發圍。


此外,由於大市下瀉,加上拆倉套現,市場更認為對沖基金今趟無運行。不過,有一派則認為問題好像被誇大。路透社找來Hedge Fund Research統計顯示,在2,200隻對沖基金中,只有少數對沖基金估計會受次級按揭問題而影響投資回報,若果被追孖展而出售資產,其他行家更樂於趁火打劫,低價買入對手急於套現的資產。


禤中怡從一份歐資大行就對沖基金投資趨向的報告中,發現對沖基金在這個夏天開始已看淡美股,無論標普500和Nasdaq市場均屬沽家居多,並且極度看淡美元匯價,較看好英鎊和歐元,同時開始將日圓套息交易平倉。股市差,對沖基金卻看好資源類商品,即使近期油價創新高,他們原來依然樂於投資,同時增加在黃金方面的好倉盤,並且持續降低對銅的沽空盤,代表看好金屬市場走勢。或許這份報告可以為投資者提供另一個數據作參考。
由於次美國次級按揭問題非短期可解決,要有心理準備這支「針」會不停刺下來,一片好景的情況,如恒指屢創新高,或暫難再現。


扭轉科技洪流的結果
與市場抗衡的結果,多以失敗告終,且看彩虹電子(438)能否克服宿命。該公司主要生產彩色顯像管,剛於周一停牌,待公布一項主要交易。


該集團曾話正洽商購母公司的LCD項目,但手上仍持有舊式彩色顯像管生產線。該集團計劃將所持4條舊式彩色顯像管生產線轉讓給持有42.9%股權的A股公司彩虹股份,令後者生產增至8條,希望藉此擴大規模效益。


問題來了,這間於A股掛牌的彩虹股份曾發出盈利警告,話彩色顯像管銷售下跌和價格下降致出現虧損。若果再增加生產線數目,真的能擺脫那些負面因素嗎?儘管市場對彩色顯像管仍有需求,但力度恐怕不會太大,而且這類產品的壽命周期已走向黃昏,靠慳、靠集中採購可維持有合理盈利嗎?更遑論要求公司盈利增長?


禤中怡記得數年前有間叫潤迅傳呼的公司,趁流動電話服務開始普及後,走去收購其他對手如佳訊、新世界和星光電訊等傳呼業務,又在深圳設傳呼中心節省成本,以為成為全港最大傳呼商便覺得前景秀麗,但全港傳呼用戶數目由96年逾百萬名,減至今日維持約12萬名,最後結果相信不用多講。


彩虹電子今次將彩色顯像管業務拋給該A股公司,似是左袋放入右袋,畢竟仍持有該公司股權,一旦該公司出現虧損,彩虹電子難免要攤佔一份。最悲慘的,恐怕是那些已經用LCD電視睇中央台節目的A股股東了。


(8月2日刊於《am730》)

11 Comments:

At 3:28 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

好像很多人對次按的問題了解不深,只是光聽傳媒講其他傳媒的報導.有不見其人,只聞樓梯響的感覺.我是在內地做生產的.上星期我個美個客人(500大)從美國帶來了他們來年的需求預測.原來,他們已經對次按的問題進行了仔細的分析.從他們的分析來看,他們在2006年的時侯已經看出了這個問題,並在比較2007年第一季和第二季中看出,這個問題不是一個小問題,是一個持續性的影響美國經濟.他們在比較過去四十年的美國經濟來說,他們認為次按問題是不會比1974年的石油危機嚴重,但就會和1980,1982年的美國經濟衰退可比較.所以,他們已經認定次按的問題是會導致經濟衰退的,那你還在想什麼?
Andrew

 
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