Friday, July 20, 2007

私募基金大手筆

港股坐了一陣過山車,可見在窄位爭持之激烈,初步看好友仍佔上風,期指在高位結算機會大,而且在高位打底多日,相信恒指交易區域已進一步推高。


禤中怡提出大笨象何時跳起,滙豐控股(005)真的升足6個交易日,話雖升幅十分濕碎,累積才1.8%,但已支持恒指「抵抗」淡友。該股昨日曾高見146.8元,惟始終有角力,收市仍升0.1元至145.8元。


另一股勢力非由李嘉誠領導的長實(001)及和黃(013)莫屬,前日話尾市支持力強,估不到抖一日後,又大發神威,證明買盤非弱。該兩間公司正式公布於8月23日開董事會會議,審閱截至6月底中期業績,即李主席想再入貨就要看時間了。


和黃股價造好,一邊話3意大利賣發射站資產,然後租用,與現時香港的3G業務外判予NEC負責營運有所不同,因為是賣資產,即可變現外,更可賺多一筆。該集團賣資產所帶來的特殊盈利已定,即使3G業務續虧損也無有怕,而其他業務在經濟向好的情況下,理應要有增長才可作交代,變相盈利增長相信已成定數,惟一不變的,恐怕是不像部分藍籌股,增加派發股息金額,繼續期望資產增值。


其實,近來資金找出路的情況有點像科網熱潮般,當時風險基金只考慮商業模式(Business Model)是否漂亮吸引,是否真有盈利則非短期思考的問題,而目前較慶幸的是,那些資金追求的是實質回報,並非僅要求瀏覽量等表面數據,故此,對沖基金和私募基金的投資,是否已進入瘋狂局面就見仁見智。只要資金供應源源不絕,大家就要追逐下去。


像香港建設(190)引入美國私募基金Cerberus做主要股東就可見一斑。大家可能對該基金較為陌生,但只要記得該基金拿下佳士拿(Chrysler)這間美國著名汽車公司股權,並且更曾經於03年與長實副主席李澤鉅就爭奪加拿大航空一役中勝出,就知道該基金非浪得虛名。


Cerberus今次大手買香港建設新股,涉資已達31億元,再加抵押貸款5億美元(約39億港元),即合共拋出70億港元入股一間香港上市公司,兼只做第二大股東角色。對該基金來說,從表面看這筆資金不算少,與其Buyout fund風格不同,因甘願做「二奶」,不像其他投資般擁主導地位,究竟是市場機會不多,願意降低要求,抑或是需專注應付本土戰線,暫且先扮演被動投資者,只派一名非執行董事負責觀戰,還是另有所圖呢?


不過,這項投資先贏帳面利潤,因為香港建設股價昨日最高曾見3.5元,收市仍企在3元以上,報3.11元,升6.5%,由於Cerberus入股價才2.273元一股,代表帳面已獲利近11.5億元!與認購新股的資金比較,即投資回報已達37%,試問私募基金怎能拒絕這些投資呢!


人民幣匯價變革兩年小結
明日,就是內地政府將人民幣匯價大幅調整兩周年的大日子,禤中怡也要學人懷舊一番。記得當時人民銀行修改人民幣匯率的制度,由與美元掛鈎的匯率計算政策,改為與一籃子貨幣掛鈎,令世界震驚,同時又把兌美元匯價即時調高2%至1美元兌8.11元人民幣,埋下日後市場進入亢奮狀態的催化劑。


首先,人民幣匯價經調整後,升值前景迅即熱起來,究竟兩年來升了多少呢?以昨日收市價計,即每1美元兌7.5632元人民幣計,自改革匯率機制後,原來已經累積上升6.74%,雖然幅度不算好大,但海外資金面對這種匯率升值形勢,肯定又引新一輪海外資金投資內地的熱潮。


這種改革匯率的趨勢亦間接令美元的強勢地位有所動搖,君不見有些國家的中央銀行增加美元以外的貨幣資產嗎?中東之前有些國家將其貨幣匯價亦與美元脫鈎,多少反映中國的貨幣政策的先知先覺。


至於內地13億人口當年所持的人民幣,在不知不覺間已有賺,口袋裡都漲了起來,但可能要兌換為美元往外闖時,才感覺得到那份優勢,留在內地時實質變化不大。


雖然匯價強,但內地通脹亦因資金湧入而更厲害,相信內地同胞如果湧來香港或東南亞地區購買心頭好,那叠人民幣才更好使。可惜,對香港人來說,到內地消費就認真不實際了,雖然內地現時生活水平仍與香港有距離,但拿著港元換人民幣,先不見了一截,回到內地使錢又遇上通脹,購買能力又再被削弱,日後會否令港人更願意留港消費呢?零售股又會否進一步造好呢?


(7月20日刊於《am730》)

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