Tuesday, July 17, 2007

大戶撐滙控高收

港股輕輕調整145點,因為有大笨象滙豐控股(005)出手,股價逆市上升,恒生指數變相跌少咗。至於現貨月期指未平倉合約仍有逾13.4萬張,相信部署好倉的大戶似乎不想調整得太大,加上利用輪流炒藍籌股戰術奏效,恒指繼續在高位爭持機會較大,如果美股又癲過,今日港股續有運行。


滙控尾市其實獲大戶力頂,如在最後兩分鐘便有多宗在市價以上錄得的成交,有兩宗在股價144.8元成交的股份各佔15.3萬和9.9萬股,即涉2,215萬和1,433萬元,之後更有大戶在144.9元落一口23.6萬股,交易額達3,420萬元,進一步鎖定股價企穩在高位,更以迫近145元收市,報144.9元,反升0.5元,顯示有心人支持到底。


禤中怡亦相信稍後有分析員推出滙控的中期業績預測報告時,可能又會話,由於英鎊匯價強勁,滙控於英國的業務轉換為美元時,可獲匯兌收益。此外,全球經濟表現良好,各地股票市場又高漲,單是證券買賣業務加融資部生意應該不俗,非利息收入業務增長料亦問題不大,至於最負面的美國次級按揭問題,相信他們又會話有關影響已淡化云云,總之有好消息跟尾。


「中國」投資公司齊飛升
藍籌股轉爭持,「中」字輩股份卻鑊氣強勁,但並非甚麼國企股,卻是一眾有「中國」兩個字的投資公司股份。中國創新投資(1217)竟然單日急漲73.17%至0.71元,總之升到你唔信,但需注意的是,中國創新投資於6月底資產淨值才0.0959元,即股價較資產淨值高6.4倍!


此外,中國金融產業投資(1227)和中國投資基金(612)亦分別大升48%和46%至2.22和0.66元。不過,這兩間公司的資產淨值於6月底亦僅為0.115和0.16元,反映股價也被炒高過資產淨值的18.3倍和3.1倍!


還有隻德泰中華投資(2324),股價也上揚35.8%至0.33元,如果又同其資產淨值0.178元比較,股價亦也高出85%。這四隻股份能夠有如此升勢,自然輕易成為昨日十大升幅股份的一分子。


這些公司其實是根據《上市規則》第21條成立的投資公司,該條例規定,該等公司參與任何投資時,都不能持有有關項目逾30%的投票權,而且在借貸方面設有限制,例如借貸總額不能超過其資產淨值的50%,否則需獲股東批准方可。


此外,這類公司都需要委託投資經理負責投資項目,營運模式與一般上市公司直接持有業務營運,或者像和黃(013)般的控股公司方式有點不同。


這些公司投資上市及非上市公司,每個項目所佔其資產淨值也有限制,且投資時所持股權最多為30%,即代表無控制權,即只能扮演被動投資者角色。此外,他們投資的非上市公司究竟如何估值,日後如何套現等都是問號。


由於這些公司直接將資金用作投資,故計算價值時,亦以資產淨值作為參考數據,因為投資愈成功,即買入的資產提供增值回報,本身資產淨值亦會水漲船高。今日這些公司能夠有如此表現,「中國」因素相信是僅有的解釋。話雖這些公司的股價並非乾升,不是用些少錢便將股價掃上去,如中國創新投資昨日成交額便有7,597萬元。


不過,散戶參與這類公司投資時,切記要計算清楚其基本因素,究竟內裡有甚麼投資等等,而且有些投資公司正進行供股集資計劃,對股價影響有多大,亦屬不明朗因素,故此若果純粹跟上車走兩轉,就要小心。當然股市炒前景,股價走前一大步亦不足為奇,禤中怡亦不想阻人發達。


(7月17日刊於《am730》)

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