Wednesday, July 04, 2007

靚地渴市舊樓有價

禤中怡的朋友近日遞上一張宣傳單張,原來居於堅道的他接到田生地產提出收購建議,可見舊樓有價。田生地產主要收舊樓,當然名字非一般業主所熟悉,但該公司其實已有逾20年歷史,堪稱華資地產收買佬,最近變相借殼上市,藉收取全美國際(8136)一批可換股票據收購田生地產,若創辦人區永華行使換股權,將佔近30%股權而成第二大股東,兼建立一個融資平台。近似例子就是金朝陽(878),收購舊樓重建,或將完整業權地盤出售,最經典的莫過於當年買入銅鑼灣的舊樓,甚至不肯割讓,最後建成銅鑼灣金朝陽中心,令該集團藉一幢物業就可翻身。


至於田生在單張中,話自己處理過的收購物業逾400幢,是老物業救星,更話做過中半山英輝台5至7號和西摩道9A至H全部物業共100個業權,涉資8億元,最近又完成德輔道西454A至462A美景大厦共80伙。田生在單張中表明,代表一準買家洽商,購入價面議,一旦落實成交,即付3萬元,之後再付大訂,即為樓價10%,於簽約後20日後支付,尾數簽正式合約後付清,但條件就是全部業主需同時簽臨時買賣合約,兼共同交易。要打動芳心,當然要找賣點,田生指朋友的物業樓齡相當,設施欠奉,老化極嚴重,更可能要集資處理污水渠等,所以最適宜重建,希望朋友肯易手。


田生頻頻出手成功,據報道最近又以2億元獲得堅道38至42A號逾91%業權,並將出價8,000萬元冀再取得鄰近44號,以便合併重建。


時移勢易,現在收樓比以前方便,「落釘」吊高來賣機會相應減少,但遇上大集團出手,你是業主也要懂得如何開價啦!這些中介公司便可扮演收樓角色,然後集齊業權才「一LOT」售予大發展商。由於靚地買少見少,重建已漸漸成為近年發展商的投資商機。


其實西半山過去亦出現過業主聯合委託代理行作聯合招標,以便提高出售價,雖然該物業集合逾九成業權,但最終因發展商出價未達業主預期,未能成功出售,究其原因,是發展商考慮統一業權存在的風險,據悉,當其中一伙未有參與聯合招標的單位,為某發展商透過有限公司持有(一般小業主或不知情),如新買家申請強制拍賣,不排除該發展商亦會出價競投,令成交現變數;如與該發展商合作,又分薄利潤。


要數聯合招標成功個案,則要數北角新東方臺1至3號及6至15號住宅物業,由於該幅地皮接近4萬方呎,當時曾有多家大型發展商出價洽購,最終招標結果,據悉亦只收得兩份標書,結果由新世界(017)夥協成行以6.5億元購入,其實其他發展商較難與之爭奪,因新東方臺的4、5號地段單一業主正是新世界及協成行,故不是每個買家都有把握爭取到擁有全數1至15號地段的呢!


港股大升賀回歸
港股昨日大升378點,再創出歷史新高,賀香港特區回歸十周年,但對禤中怡一位喜歡炒賣細價股的朋友來說,與股災無異。原因是,此君上周開始,買入一籃子「德祥系」的股票,包括德祥(372)及錦興(275),到昨日見市況氣勢如虹,更撲入澳門祥泰地產(199)。但3家股份在大升市之際,相反覆下滑,跌幅介乎2.7%至6%,朋友戲(氣)言,難道被市場喻為「爆棚哥」的系內股份,捧場的「粉絲」無爆棚食仲要食詐胡?


提起大市,禤中怡亦有不甚留意市況走勢的友人,上周六聚舊,表示已經將手頭的強積金(多屬於保本及保證基金),轉為高增長或亞洲地區基金,理由是,港股升完再升,不想平白錯過賺錢機會云云。禤中怡暗忖,以恒指現水平的預測市盈率,大約16倍,若按以往港股平均20至22倍的見頂水平來作準,恒指真的是有機會上試28,000點,才見頂回落,亦不足為奇。但從一位完全不問投資,也不會投資的友人行徑來看,市況大升,確實已經吸引了一些從沒投資經驗的新手入局。而恒指升抵現水平,在貪婪與謹慎之間,如何選擇?禤中怡的理解是,若按個人的好惡,在金魚缸內馳騁,責任與風險自負,但對一般僱員的退休老本,本人意見就不傾向過分進取。


(7月4日刊於《am730》)

14 Comments:

At 2:25 PM, Blogger another value investor said...

"以恒指現水平的預測市盈率,大約16倍,若按以往港股平均20至22倍的見頂水平來作準,恒指真的是有機會上試28,000點,才見頂回落,亦不足為奇"

I am a frequent reader of your blog and generally agree with your opinions. However, for the above quote, I would like to raise that the recent accounting rule change, which stipulates the revaluation of real estate holdings as income, would likely boost the total income of the Hang Seng constituents significantly. In another words, had the old accounting system been used, the total earnings would have been less and thus the P/E would be higher. How much higher I don't know, but considering the high market capitalizations of real estate companies on Hang Seng and the significant revaluation of property values for the past year, I would guess that the adjusted P/E would be around 18-20. This means the current valuation of HS is approaching its historical peak.

 
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