Wednesday, June 20, 2007

熱炒大價股

端午佳節,港股昨日休市,經紀可以去扒龍舟,但最重要是不要「坐艇」。恒生指數在過去3個交易日已合共升逾1,000點,周一看似人人有錢落袋,如果買隻思捷(330),就可見證成為藍籌股中第四隻「紅底股」,皆因股價收市報101.1元,一日增6.3%。禤中怡一直話做獨市生意的港交所(388)股價更已見99元,隨時加入「紅底股」俱樂部。無辦法,成交額大增,要計生意有幾好,真的易過借火。


不過,看看那份「賽後報告」,發現有1,053隻股份股價於周一下跌,並非全面雞犬皆升,即使在藍籌股中,也有幾隻以本地業務為主的股份下跌,明顯跑輸大市,而大笨象滙豐控股(005)亦不過應酬式掃上幾格,真的估不到在大市創新高後,滙控股價只企在144元,再一次證明內地股的主導地位,已因遊戲規則改變而進一步鞏固。


恒指引入國企股,自然加添增長動力,炒期指的當然懂得依靠這些「藍籌股」,相信內地保險股和銀行股推高恒指的力量只會愈來愈大。至於建設銀行(939)和中國工商銀行(1398)兩隻股份股價仍舊是細細粒,分別只為5.25元和4.44元,散戶實行可以當細價股炒,一點也不會手軟。


細價股交投則已隨著轉炒大價股而失寵,投資者何時回心轉意,相信要等藍籌股顯著調整方可,但內地股市續升,美國息口預料難變的情況下,中美股市必齊心合力造上,況且期指淡友料已差不多全數打靶,港股較難近期大幅回落,相信大價股可續領風騷。


內地頻出招,銀監會先找8間銀行出氣,利用兩間國企中國核工業建設集團公司和中國海運(集團)公司來「祭旗」,看似出手極重,要向銀行罰款兼暫停經營部分業務,禤中怡相信今次挪用銀行貸款轉作炒股用途的情況只屬冰山一角,皆因公司將資金透過迂迴的方法轉往不同的企業單位去炒股十分容易,而銀行負責監管就認真費力,投入的成本根本難以估計。加上銀行一向要照顧國企公司的需要,這個早已是公開的秘密,而且銀行亦不能像已發展市場的銀行般,循正常商業運作模式,進行盡職審查後才作貸款,恐怕惟有繼續隻眼開、隻眼閉。


其實,若果沒有巨額資金投入內地股市,單靠散戶的血汗錢,真的能令深滬股市有如此浩蕩表現嗎?孖展貸款在海外市場發展多時,監管當局倒不如建立一套孖展監管規則,可能更能貼合時勢。


打擊完銀行,財政部又向出口商埋手,突然一口氣大減多種商品出口退稅,恐怕對出口企業的邊際利潤造成顯著打擊,因為訂單相信在之前一段時間已落實,即時加價抵銷部分影響料有難度,即使是數個百分點,相信在今日競爭激烈的環境下,影響也非同小可,所以今日要多加留意服裝、塑料製品、玩具和鞋類等出口商的股價表現,話雖有關影響可能於下半年才顯現出來,但股價一向是走在前面,隨時率先反映在股價上。


(6月20日刊於《am730》)

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