Friday, June 08, 2007

觀察投資法

所謂力不到不為財,要投資成功,可委託專業人士替你增值,或自己抽空鑽研,當然後者所花功夫最多。像股神巴菲特最著名的「價值投資法」,即找尋長期獲利而價格被低估的健康企業股票,然後長期持有。至於Peter Lynch這位基金經理的理論亦值得推祟,他將富達麥哲倫基金於13年間,從1,800萬美元變成140億美元,年平均增長75%!在Peter Lynch的著作《征服股海》中,便提出類似觀察投資的策略,就是注意日常生活發生的事情,如往購物中心看那個商店最多人光顧,分分鐘有顯著啟發作用。


且看近期搭車搭船趕火車,身邊總有一兩個年輕或穿著行政套裝的OL(Office Lady)手拿一部電子遊戲機,不是黑色就是白色,更有粉紅色,認真多姿多采,再細看之下,普遍手持任天堂的NDS(Nintendo DS)。估不到的是,連身邊的同事在放工後也齊齊集合玩NDS,兩個對打,甚至多人參戰也有,氣氛認真熱烈,簡直是「打成一片」,可見其威力。


禤中怡一群朋友探訪好友,發現一部任天堂Wii遊戲機,其中一個朋友的太太試玩,豈知愈玩愈開心,特別是那個保齡球和網球遊戲,原來運動量極大,又有滿足感(因為遊戲分數比真正打保齡球還高!),竟嚷著叫朋友買一部回家玩。原來Wii銷售量驚人,據日本遊戲雜誌發行商Enter-brain指,單是5月任天堂Wii遊戲機銷售量足足比Sony的PlayStation3多4.6倍,任天堂於同期竟售出25.17萬部Wii遊戲機,PS3只賣出4.5萬部,較4月Wii和PS3銷售量比例為4比1進一步擴大,即賣出4部Wii,才賣出一部PS3。


再查看股價,發現任天堂股價走勢認真對辦,由今年初每股約3萬日圓升至昨日約4.25萬日圓,增幅達41.6%,若與去年7月初股價約1.92萬日圓比較,更已有1.2倍升幅!可見業務增長反映在股價上,不一定要訪問該公司,或者是專業分析員才知曉的,相反埋頭研究,或不會理會這些遊戲機。


大家可能認為禤中怡事後孔明,兼且日本股票點買呀!但其實在港股中也有一些隱藏的機會。像東方表行(398),一間手表零售商,絕對不起眼,但禤中怡逛街,卻見到在中環華潤百貨舊址,一幢新大厦已落成,而地面的一個舖位已由東方表行承租。之後禤中怡更在佐敦嘉利大厦重建後的新物業JD Mall,發現該集團又租用地舖,即一條彌敦道最少有3間門市。該股近日重回升軌,由昨日收市報1.8元,距離3個月前高位1.84元不遠矣。若果有留意新聞,有時也可發掘落後股,但不一定在財經版。像保昌控股(562)持有的尖沙咀東部新文華中心A座8樓全層,原來委託仲量聯行招標出售,若如以意向呎價5,300元計,市值約1億元。


禤中怡做些少功課,看看該集團買入時的資料,發現該集團在2001年9月中以4,000萬元買入。這代表甚麼?不計按揭及期間所作折舊等支出,若以上述價錢售出,就有6,000萬元盈利落袋,相等於06年度純利的53%!即每股賺0.19元,相等昨日收市價5.15元的3.68%。原來,資產增值的好處,對一間物流公司的影響有這麼大。


港股波動續增,美股前晚跌逾百點,恒指昨日開市初段即唔見200點,以為淡友可以大勝而回,怎知低位愈升愈有,最後僅跌18點,收市報20,800點,成交額650億元,相信好倉倉底有力,而內地股市造好,多少也有幫助,深圳成分指數升2.9%,上海證券綜合指數更升3%。


復甦股繼續嚇死人,繼爆棚哥(陳國強)旗下德祥企業(372)拯救的卓施金網(8063)停牌3年多,復牌股價即彈10倍後,另一隻沉睡股陝西西北新技術實業(8258)同聯交所解畫成功,06年全年和今年首季均有錢賺,故自05年3月底停牌後終復活,開市即由0.098元彈上1元!之後輾轉回落,最後報0.5元,單日升4倍,有1.4億股成交,真係唔到你唔信。


(6月8日刊於《am730》)

12 Comments:

At 9:53 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

>他將富達麥哲倫基金於13年間,從1,800>萬美元變成140億美元,年平均增長75%

我對peter lynch 推崇之至, 不過講佢由1800萬變成140億未免斷章取義, 咁高增長既原因係多左客人俾錢佢投資...

 
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