Monday, May 28, 2007

炒到創業板 散戶小心

爆棚哥(陳國強)未有令市場失望,一隻創業板公司卓施金網(8063)股價暴升10倍,市值輕輕一揮就由3,612萬元驟增至4億元,果然是神乎其技!不過,大戶認真「識做」,開市頭十多分鐘即彈上0.31元,以為今次有大茶飯食,豈知股價卻迅速回落,十點半已跌至0.18元,之後更從未再破0.18元,如早段追貨炒即日鮮,恐怕難有甜頭,兼要「打靶」離場。


曾幾何時,散戶和大戶離創業板而去,皆因有輪可炒,國壽輪、恒指輪相信令一眾街邊級投資者難以忘懷。此外,二三線股亦提供新「戰場」,最經典的莫過於蒙古能源(276),這隻前身叫新世界數碼的公司,經營甚麼業務都差點忘記,豈知變身後,股價由幾毫子,變成超過7元的大價股,在這種猶如冒險大樂園的市場環境底下,試問散戶怎會理會創業板呢?不過,如有留意,禤中怡曾提到創業板股失驚無神被炒上,然後再翻查最近創業板成交表現,原來4月每日成交額不多,最高一日才逾8億元。好了,今個月又如何呢?在17個交易日中,除了3個交易日的單日成交額少於6億元之外,普遍成交表現不俗,超過9億元,甚至10億元亦有出現,加上隻卓施金網復牌,「進貢」逾8,800萬元成交額,令上周五創業板整體成交額大增至近12億元,屬近期高位。雖然對比主板可謂「九牛一毛」,但亦反映有資金轉戰創業板。


另外一個現象是,創業板股份配股潮陸續有來。康健(8138)在一個月內兩次配股,共籌3億元,配股價分別為0.5412元和0.61元,一樣有人接貨,而上周五收市價是甚麼?0.82元也!有認購、或跟風的投資者都有斬獲。至於隻同仁堂科技(8069)又配售1,452萬股,每股18.38元,集資2.66億元,相信要湊足額難度亦不太大。由於市場有水,上周竟有4間創業板公司同時停牌,包括乾坤燭國際(8055)、MP物流(8239)、易寶(8086)同中裕燃氣(8070),他們停牌原因都是一樣,就是準備配售新股集資,而中裕燃氣還兼發行可換股債券,額外搵多筆新錢。公司集資無可厚非,但資金炒賣之風已蔓延至創業板後,再一次為投資者響警號,因為傳統智慧是,藍籌先升,之後二三線、甚至四五六七線股跟隨向上,而現在連創業板也開始展開新一股浪潮,恐怕大市有幾多「力水」,可以視作一個參考。最後,禤中怡想多謝格老,皆因周二話小心挾好倉,格老就出來話內地股市要調整,令港股上周五就跌300點,現貨月期指更跌317點。


「黑石」落池起漣漪
黑石集團(Blackstone)獲國家外匯投資公司入股後,已平地一聲雷,更令私募基金(Private equity fund)成為新熱門話題,內地更預測今年全年內地私募基金投資額將逾100億美元(約780億港元)。原來今年首季17隻投資中國的亞洲私募基金籌得資金達75.64億美元(約590億港元),比去年同期大增3.3倍,可見市場熱衷投資內地,但這些私募基金亦要積極找尋項目以完成投資者認購的基金,希望獲豐厚回報的使命。


在一個內地探討私募基金高峰會上,更選出今年中國最具影響力私募股權投資機構,黑石集團當然上榜,其他還包括倍恩資本、3i、凱雷集團和鼎暉投資。當然,內地政府希望利用這些資金,有國務院官員已表明中國產權交易市場可引入類似私募基金、風險投資資本等投資者。去年中國產權交易機構的交易共1.7萬宗,交易金額達2,715億元人民幣,可見市場不容忽視,其中,國有產權交易金額達2,015億元人民幣,但這些資產是否能迎合私募基金口味就很難講。


(5月28日刊於《am730》)

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