Tuesday, June 05, 2007

乾淨殼有價有市

內地股市終於配合「阿爺」的政策,跌個人仰馬翻,但究竟會健康調整,還是給予散戶一個入市機會,再度發揮人民力量,將指數重新抽上呢?其實,內地傳徵收資產增值稅,禤中怡認為執行上可能較困難,畢竟計算方法複雜,相對而言,建立一套沽空制度,可能更有助大市健康發展,因為目前市場只提供看好的投資策略,即所謂買升的「單邊」方法,最終只能有升無跌。


若引入沽空制度,無疑可提供一個均衡機制。不過,有投資銀行界話,其實中國人在傳統上多以看漲為主,曾經在香港推出一些看淡的衍生投資工具,奈何反應始終不大,與外國投資者的投資態度有些不同,甚至可能認為沽空機制只屬大戶玩意,最終損失的是散戶投資者。


至於港股就懶理內地股市,自己轉炒幾轉,更傳話內地資金調來香港炒國企股,但中資金融股只能個別反彈,如中國人壽(2628)和平安保險(2318)均先升後跌,最近表現殘殘地的中國工商銀行(1398)和中國銀行(3988)則分別報升0.24%和0.52%,而石油股續炒發現新油田消息,但中國石化(386)和中國石油(857)升勢似減弱,中石油收市只升0.98%至10.26元。相反資源股如中國神華(1088)近期氣勢如虹,昨日收市報25元,增1.6%,成交額達8.33億元。該股於3月才企19元邊緣,估不到已累積升31.5%。


至於消息股就厲害了,皆因股份有價,早已傳有人想賣「殼」,即上市地位也,新投資者購入公司主要股權,一過上市癮。一個乾淨的殼,索價1億元不為過,但要吸引收購,不但需要股價偏低、股份數目集中在少數投資者上,兼且發行股數不多,才方便新買家完成交易。


禤中怡從投資界了解,有隻半新股上市才過一年,已急不及待放聲氣求售,希望賣殼成功,可以多撈一筆,即使扣除「手續費」、飲茶食飯灌水等,最少都有數千萬元落袋,分分鐘好搵過本業。不過,GAY GIANO(686)持60%股權的大股東率先話賣枱,股價又彈78%至0.89元,莫非傳思捷(330)、ZARA及Fast Retailing入股佐丹奴(709)純粹煙幕,真正獵物另有其股?GAY GIANO大股東揸1.2億股,股價大增令批貨升值至1億元。佐丹奴亦唔講得笑,係咁易傳一傳,股價單日急增一成,收市報4.08元,全日彈升0.39元,成交股數更由上周的1,800多萬股急升近4倍至8,880多萬股,連帶其他服裝零售股亦借消息炒一轉,堡獅龍(592)、慕詩(130)齊升8%,Joyce(647)更大升24%。


正輝中國(169)亦突然於昨日下午停牌,待發出一項單一大股東股權改變。主席蘇邦俊本來持有這內地房地產投資公司的62.36%股權,早前已按平均股價0.571元沽3,500萬股,套現約2,000萬元,股權降至50.4%,之後股價續上,停牌前報0.7元,即手頭餘貨約值1億元。兩隻股份都不見有雜務,即複雜的業務,一隻賣衫,一隻做地產,確屬理想的「殼」。由於市道不弱,相信賣枱陸續有來。


其他三四線股的升幅更驚人。漢基控股(412)單日就升1.1倍俾你睇,收市雖報5.7仙,只升3仙,金額看似細眉細眼,但如果你在之前入市掃100萬股,以4月12日停牌收市價計,才2.7萬元,但今日沽出就賺3萬元,試問散戶怎不心動,皆因小刀也可鋸到棵不小的樹了,兼且可以在短時間內收割!難怪鑊氣如此強勁,成交額達7.85億元。該股話計劃替一間於兩年內開業的澳門賭場貴賓廳提供管理安排,但為符合有關條例,已改為磋商向關連人士提供財務資助以落實合作,但要注意的是:磋商不一定簽正式協議!畢竟富貴險中求,禤中怡惟有說句「祝你好運」。


(6月5日刊於《am730》)

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