Thursday, May 31, 2007

退燒藥陸續有來

做證券買賣,當然有交易成本,估不到香港市場要求取消印花稅以增強競爭力之際,內地股市卻反將印花稅率加兩倍,變相提高投資成本,希望讓股民先計數,不要盲目炒賣。禤中怡看看內地網站,發現股民認為早應調高印花稅率(不知是馬後炮還是已有心理準備),因為在熊市時,減印花稅或有刺激成交作用,但今日火紅火綠,何不恢復舊制呢!


不過,財政部選擇凌晨公布加印花稅率,確有商榷餘地,因為市場資訊講求透明度及消化期,這個部門卻偏偏選擇找大家準備入睡,缺乏防禦能力之際出招,希望對社會構成震撼,但市場根本沒有時間討論,投資者亦無法作出反應,分分鐘引發恐慌性拋售,最終是雙失,政府和股民齊損失也!若果選擇在收市後公布該消息,兼略作解畫,之後市場評論陸續登場,股民起碼有一個晚上消化意見,才作決定,希望有關方面可從善如流。


至於加印花稅率的終極結果是怎樣呢?如果翻查在92年6月中,國家稅務總局明確規定股民要繳交印花稅0.3%後,隨後一個月上證指數由1,100點,輾轉跌到只有300多點,足足蒸發了超過70%市值!


好了,直至97年5月12日,政府有關部門更將印花稅從0.3%增至0.5%,結果如何不用多講,當日終於成為牛市的頂位,然後又跌過,指數累積下跌500點,累計跌幅又有30%,反映加印花稅對市場造成的殺傷力驚人。如果加印花稅都不奏效,相信股市要多服幾劑宏調「退燒藥」。


面對內地政府不斷出招,從加存款準備金率、提高存款和貸款息率,可見收緊資金的決心,奈何禤中怡一直認為今次牛市的最大誘因是資金過多,投資渠道少,只有走單邊。雖然有QDII(合資格境內機構投資者)機制,但「排洪」能力有限,加上人民幣匯價持續升值,如果用人民幣買海外股票,分分鐘連匯價都「蝕埋」,倒不如先炒A股,然後再謀定而後動更佳。


考察團滾滾來
細價股表現暢旺,大家樂於追捧,作為上市公司的老闆怎會不緊跟這股潮流,除了趁勢「批盪」,在市場配售新股抽水,讓公司坐擁資金再作打算外,亦積極安排「路演」,即road show也,實行展示業務實力。


同投資界朋友談起,原來他近來十分忙碌,隨時找不到影蹤,皆因驛馬星動,上市公司頻頻邀請去視察業務,但眾所周知,若公司從事工業製造的,廠房非內地莫屬,故乘飛機次數自然大增,而投資界近期熱門炒作資源股,故一眾基金經理由深入內蒙古,到走遍東南亞也不足為奇。


據禤中怡所知,昨日便有一個新鮮滾熱辣的考察團往廣東省,就是由聯康生物科技(690)安排,帶一眾基金經理往常平睇廠。前身叫新高準的聯康生物仍持有原來的印刷和包裝業務,後來拓展醫藥和保健產品業務。今次帶基金經理去睇醫療研究成果,據聞其研究的藥物快將通過測試等等,難怪要在酷熱天氣警告下搞推介。該股昨日收3.5元,無升跌,但近日成交股數大增。


至於宏安集團(2925)也不遑多讓,聽聞近期將邀請好友往東莞考察。不要小看這隻街市股,自從公布將每一股拆細為20股後,股價升到不著邊際,該股昨收市報0.77元,急跌10%,但要注意的是,股價金額雖低,股份卻已拆細,故計回未拆細的股份,實際股價竟高達15.4元!除了巡遊內地外,也有上市公司搞出國團。黃金集團(1031)已簽諒解備忘錄,可能收購Cambo Six後,下周末帶人往柬埔寨,視察於當地的足球博彩業務。個市有幾旺一目了然。


(5月31日刊於《am730》)

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