Tuesday, June 12, 2007

政策市考眼光

一如所料,港股開市初段即裂口抽上164點至20,673點,可惜再升乏力,但又未致大散,急速掉頭回落,全日牛皮悶局,恒指收市報20,615點,升106點,而國企股指數走勢相若,窄幅上落幅度不大,僅約50點,收市升75點至10,903點,總成交只有574億元,未見突出。


內地政府對行業監管經常變化多端,港股進一步變成「政策市」。如傳電訊業重組和3G發牌政策,中國聯通(762)成為藍籌股中表現最佳股份,單日彈5.7%至11.7元,迫近5月初的今年收市高位,即12元,中國網通(906)和中國移動(941)亦分別增2.7%和0.76%,而中國電信(728)亦增2.2%至4.55元,又準備挑戰上周所創上市新高的4.6元。


另一個受影響的行業就是再生能源業,因國務院常務會議原則通過停止在建的糧食乙醇燃料項目,日後只可在不佔用耕地、不消耗糧食及不破壞生態環境原則下發展非糧食的乙醇燃料。內地媒體話只得4間試點產業可「留低」,中國糧油控股(606)及其母公司便持有其中3間企業股權,但傳亦要逐步轉用非糧食用的替代能源,以免出現與人爭糧問題。至於已獲批的亦不准擴大規模。初步看,中糧油控股靠乙醇燃料這種替代能源去吸引海外大孖沙的炒作概念恐受影響,畢竟限制擴展空間,招股書內話,發展的遼寧和湖北項目原本08年初動工,現時恐怕凍過水。


不過,從好的方面看,單是現有個項目已有約125萬噸乙醇燃料產能,新對手可能少之又少,控制市場能力自然增強,要買替代能源股份數目寥寥可數。該股昨日停牌,當時收6.23元,較上市時已累升67%。股份今日復牌。


題外話,燃料乙醇這種產品主要來自玉米,其實有間叫大成科技(809),也是用玉米做多元醇,以代替用石油提煉,但多元醇主要供塑膠和化工行業用。該股昨日股價便急彈6%至3.68元,莫非炒影子股?


公告電子化
對小型上市公司管理層來說,本月25日是一個鬆一口氣的日子,因為主板公司只需將公告全文在港交所(388)網站刊發便已符合規定,改變以往必須在一份中文和一份英文報章刊登公告全文的規定,至於是不是仍需要在報章登公告,則由有關公司自行決定。


不要以為登公告是一件小事,禤中怡聽上市公司管理層話,一個公告分分鐘要索價數萬元,甚至以10萬元計,所謂小數怕長計,隨時一年要花幾十萬至過百萬元支出絕不稀奇。禤中怡認為以往資訊科技尚未發達,報章仍是大眾知悉消息的主要渠道,亦可補充電子傳媒報道的不足,兼且話要有高透明度,公司上市時亦已知道這個遊戲規則,作為企業管治成本的一部分,理應有所付出。


不過,今日寬頻服務滲透率高,互聯網發展迅速,下載公告需時有限,而且收費和免費電視服務均加強財經資訊,刊發那些為關連交易表決的股東特別大會結果等一些關注度極低的資訊已成為浪費。


其實,創業板上市公司早已可以自行選擇是否於報章刊發公告,但未見有人提出嚴重抗議,批評透明度不足,但主板跟隨這種做法卻遭非議?真的令人百思不得其解!不過,作為國際性的上市公司,就不能慳這些錢,除本地報章外,更會自行在海外報章刊登如業績撮要等資訊,藉此提升其投資關係水平,根本不用硬性規定。


反而,禤中怡會為幾隻報業股擔心,少了這部分收入,又是另一則負面消息。


(6月12日刊於《am730》)

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