Friday, June 15, 2007

影子股出沒注意

禤中怡見到美國零售數字強勁,比預期好一倍,跟著周四凌晨見到美股收市漲逾百點,知道港股昨日「有運行」,恒指亦展現徐徐向上之勢,差點破21,000點,收市報20,867點,全日升1.4%,而國企股指數更創新高,再一次與內地股市表現背馳,皆因國民愛戴的總理溫家寶終開口要宏調,大家知道來真的!


港股抽上,全賴中資股,如中國移動(941)和中國海洋石油(883)分別推動恒指升57.58點和30.36點,而中資金融股亦不俗,建設銀行(939)和中國工商銀行(1398)已各自貢獻20點,其他傳統藍籌股相對失色。


美國零售數據反映當地消費市場走勢強勁,但與市場預測相距太遠,令人摸不著頭腦,皆因市場透明度高,加上那些年薪優厚的分析員有一定實力,怎會出現眼鏡碎滿地的尷尬場面,莫非為月底議息時,提供有力的加息證據?不過,美國樓市好像未見起色,美國聯邦儲備局近期更準備推出次級按揭貸款的新規則,希望加強監管貸款予信用質素較差的客戶,相信聯儲局主席伯南克可以左擁通脹潛在威脅,右抱樓市放緩,又一次維持息率不變,留待下回分解,至於屆時美元匯價能否繼續維持強勢就有變數,但起碼同事短期去日本旅行,所兌日圓已好使好多!


新股近日熱烘烘,其中聯邦制藥(3933)今日主板掛牌,本來認購反應未算特別出色,但估不到投資者竟瘋狂炒一堆影子股,如李氏大藥廠(8221)一日大彈52%至0.76元、東北虎藥業(8197)急漲27.58%、萬全科技藥業(8225)上升20%及吉林長龍藥業(8049)亦增16.3%。相反,近期人氣極盛的精優藥業(858)只增1%,相信與焦點轉移有關。不過,雖注意這類股份成交走勢,否則有得入,無得出就認真頭痛!


至於隻稻香(573)招股,股東之一的大家樂(341)早前用9,786萬元入股,即使股權將被攤薄,但每股成本才0.9834元,若以招股價上限3.2元定價,批股份市值高達3.26億元,投資回報才短短3個多月便高達2.25倍。話雖有一年禁售期,不管市況如何慘淡,大家樂這趟投資贏面極高,會否像之前持有百麗(1880)股份的美麗寶(1179)般,大家樂股價因手頭投資價值大增而飛升就未知,只知大家樂這項投資好搵過賣奶茶。該股股價目前徘徊在14至15元之間。


中環人看生老病死
今日是禤中怡同事父親舉殯的日子,或許年紀大,近月白事繁忙。朋友的外母兩個月前離開,一位同行朋友的外甥才9歲便因腦部毛病而逝去,令人惋惜。但最傷感的是,在一個寂靜的凌晨,手機突傳來了這樣一條短訊:「我爸終於安息了」。


人生本來就是要面對生老病死,但親人有事,感情絕對是控制不了的,而對於一個活在金錢世界的中環人而言,這個時刻就變得更加複雜,市場不會因為我們而停下來,價位上落只發生在一剎之間,我曾經叫同事放假,但她又說上班反而可以分分心,忘掉傷痛,看見她如常地工作,我倒過來覺得十分無奈。


再說一個回歸10年的故事。朋友勤力工作,儲錢能力極強,但被股市所吸引,竟炒期指,結果當然是慘淡收場,幸懸崖勒馬,欠下的金錢雖不至以球(即百萬元)計,但數十萬元欠款也要想辦法解決,除了家人幫忙,最後在高峰期曾做3份工作,捱了幾年才脫離債仔行列,已算好彩。家庭是人生的核心投資,炒完股不要去花天酒地,回家吃頓飯吧,朋友!



(6月15日刊於《am730》)

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