Monday, June 25, 2007

基金搶入細價股

上周恒生指數氣勢如虹,能否再闖過一關,就認真要睇睇好友是否賺夠,若果他們趁期指結算前夕,選擇平倉離場,多少對指數構成壓力,畢竟臨近高位,角力情況加劇,而且大價股升得七七八八,要再如上周表現,恐較困難。


對於今次這個大升市,禤中怡覺得日圓匯價下跌真的幫了一大把,且看日本央行差不多提早投降,話短期不加息,美國的經濟數據又「嚇死人」般好(還記得那個零售數據比預期高一倍嗎?),搞到分析員預測由減息變加息,轉軚轉到連自己的投資方向都變得無影無蹤。


日圓兌美元匯價由本月初的121,急跌至準備破124,收123.86,差不多已跌了近2.48%,以股市計,當然濕濕碎,但在外匯市場而言,在如此短時間內有此幅度,就不能小看了,因為匯價弱,套息活動(carry trade)必更猖狂,連禤中怡一位在尖沙咀上班的OL朋友也說:「我公司嗰位清潔阿嬸都話日圓(匯價)咁低,梗係借嚟炒啦!」那些大鱷又怎會放棄這個大好機會,狂借日圓去炒股,實行財匯兼收,或多或少亦可發現港股交投大增至逾千億元的原因。


面對錢多到瀉,相信過去受冷落的細價股將重拾注意。其實,近期已有一些細價股蠢蠢欲動,如中國科技(985)上周停牌,相信周內公布新交易,之前大家或許已知是收購鉬礦資產,但聽聞這個礦藏的估值叫到30億至40億元,但收購代價則為2億至3億元,而收購代價則分兩部分,即現金加發行新股支付,實行加入資源炒賣俱樂部。


為甚麼要提這間公司?皆因之前該股配股予新世界發展(017)主席彤叔外,還有一間資產管理公司名為「DnB NOR Asset Management (Asia) Limited 」,如果往網上看,這間來自北歐的基金

最近還持有中國林大(910)約6.42%股權。其母公司DnB NOR Group在北歐等地是一間規模不少的金融集團,管理資產金額達800億美元(約5,600億港元)。


至於另一間「可能」加入資源炒賣俱樂部的,就是福茂控股(462),因只簽諒解備忘錄,尚未落實也。不過,該股就快速「批盪」集資,接貨的包括有名的Value Partners的謝清海,最特別的是,連AIG Global Investment Corp. Limited也要入貨,他們各以每股2元入股5,000萬股,即真金白銀拿1億元去投該公司信心的一票。聽投資界朋友話,兩間公司入股前,原來他們的高層都曾親自考察,看看那個鐵礦情況,回來後才入股。此外,該股計劃找相關專才入董事局,包括來自江西銅業(358)的高層做非執行董事,實行要表現專業的一面。


這兩間公司近期的發展均有類似情況,除了齊齊轉型做資源行業外,就是有能力找來基金,但並非細眉細眼的公司仔,而是大有來頭的國際性基金公司,如AIG Global Investment Corp. Limited不是AIG美國國際集團旗下的機構嗎?反映機構性投資者的注意力已蔓延至細價股方面。


禤中怡覺得大基金同散戶搶玩細價股,實無可厚非,畢竟錢太多,很多股份已有一定可觀升幅,投資對象相對較少,且有概念,又有成功個案,何況跟風上車走兩轉?相信這種風氣會進一步擴大,細價股本周重臨機會不少,注意交投。


當然,錢多,最好像內地股市般,擴大吸錢機器,即多些新股上市也,難怪本周招股活動愈趨熱鬧,面對花多眼亂的投資機會,實在要小心分配資金,避免過度投資(Over Invest),連自己的日常生活也受影響。


其實,大市氣氛好之外,受到半年結影響,公司也要趕著招股,因為若公司於7月或以後才招股,便可能不可以把在6月底前的帳目作為上市參考,恐怕又要重新「做數」,之前花費的人力物力建立之靚靚業績便報廢,更需要提供一份更新的業績報告放在招股書內,試問公司管理層怎能錯失這個機會呢?



(6月25日刊於《am730》)

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