Friday, July 06, 2007

只要信不要問

港股果然繼續造好,但氣勢轉弱,好淡爭持局面加劇。英國加息0.25厘,話雖市場早有心理準備,但仍需恐防美元匯價續降,美股跟隨回軟的話,港股大致要調整罷了。煤炭股真的是大漲小回,無論大小股份均升至忘我境界,皆因大行也加入唱好,瑞銀話內地對煤的需求續增,並看好煤價前景,今明兩年煤價分別升8%和5%,故將中國神華(1088)目標價提高7%至35.15元。德意志銀行更厲害,索性把該股目標價由21元調高近六成至33元,主因該股內地發A股集資,有助進一步收購。高盛亦睇38元,總之氣氛好,目標價隨時調整,無人會話你看錯市。


小型的煤炭相關股份早已偷雞成功,如必美宜(379)單日就彈81.4%至3.1元,成交額逾10億元,表現更勝和黃(013)!為甚麼會平地一聲雷?必美宜話要斥9.28億元買寶訊科技(8089)13.92%股權就得米,但其實必美宜只是印公仔紙(發行新股)和可換股債券便支付全部代價,即一個仙的真金白銀也不用拿出來便完成收購,而寶訊最大賣點就是正收購內地運煤運鐵的貨運業務,這也算煤炭股就真的令人大開眼界,實在是財技高手。


這還不止,必美宜發行新股支付的3億元代價中,每股發行價僅1.1元,較停牌前收市價折讓達35.6%,而與昨日收市價計,折讓幅度更高達64.5%,即意味出售寶訊股份的買家改揸必美宜的股份後,斬獲更為驚人,至於收購餘額則發行可換股債券支付,換股價同為1.1元,認真著數。


不過,必美宜在6月20日收市價才0.88元,且曾於6月21日發出不明股價升因,之後翌日股價竟然可一下子變成1.71元,即兩日間累升94%,然後就停牌待公布須披露交易的通告,那麼之前那份不明股價升因的通告提到:「公司確認目前並無任何有關收購或變賣的商談或協議,根據《上市規則》須予公開」,究竟代表甚麼呢?莫非管理層與對家傾一個周末,就達成一個如此周詳兼重大的商業協議?


與台北的士司機對話
七一慶回歸,禤中怡卻跑到台北去抖抖氣。多年未訪,很多東西變化甚大,唯一不變的相信是那些綿羊仔組成的車群和具有「騎樓」的舊大廈。台灣股市今年上半年表現不俗,加權平均指數累升13.5%,比恒生指數增幅還多,理應人人荷包腫脹,但與的士(當地稱為「計程車」)司機談起,個個都話經濟不景氣。


禤中怡用「半鹹淡」的國語與計程車司機探究原因,佢話一日要工作約12小時,收入未見大增,但車價已由數年前的30萬元(新台幣,下同)升至80萬元,但新車落地一年多,只值回65萬元,即一個月折舊就不見1萬元,約值2,500港元。此外,經濟非佳,人人揸的士,單是台北市及台北縣估計就有接近8萬部的士,而台北縣人口只有約377萬。至於基隆就更厲害,有司機話當地人口才40萬,但就有1萬部的士,難怪他也要搬來台北市。可惜,駕私家車和綿羊仔的人多,怎會幫襯計程車?且面對僧多粥少的競爭下,究竟遷移開車城市的作用又有多大呢?


禤中怡晚上又走去饒河街夜市,竟與數年前人潮擠擁無得比,坐下吃鐵板燒,只是8時多,已經有空枱,跟姓周的老闆談起,佢話生意好靜,與以前大不同,皆因阿扁(總統陳水扁)作怪喎!


有司機慨嘆,不少台灣企業家都跑到內地謀生,即使有錢都不會在台灣花,試問當地經濟怎會好。皮毛談話不能以偏概全,鼎泰豐依然要排隊,但某些變化已是不爭的事實。



(7月6日刊於《am730》)

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