Wednesday, July 18, 2007

長和尾市支持強

港股果然有運行,美股升,好友又出動,滙豐控股(005)繼續做龍頭,淡友想藉調整推低大市,甚至拋出內地宏調再現,加息在望等負面消息,但都無損恒指開市即逐步向上,又破23,000點,淡友恐怕也要投降。


李嘉誠像上癮般,密密吸長實(001)股份,昨日亦出現289宗大手成交,涉及430萬股,尾市更咬住在1毫子之間爭持,先在109.7元擺下7.9萬股,涉資867萬元,之後再掃兩大手,每手逾4萬股,叫價進一步推上109.8元,但有人在109.5元排隊沽共1.1萬股,但大戶怎會功虧一簣,實行拋逾200萬元,在109.7元再掃2萬股,收市升至109.6元,升2.3元,成交額5.57億元,昨日李超人又有否入市呢?


至於隻和黃(013)也再破84元,最後5分鐘更獲大戶從84.2元開始大手買入,一直衝上,至84.5元又有2萬股承接,總值近170萬元,最後能夠以84.3元收市,升0.45元,絕對不失禮。


由於兩隻股份即將公布中期業績,李嘉誠需按例暫停增持股份行動,而失去這個大靠山後,這段時間對淡友來說,無疑是一個好消息,但會否又被挾就要考眼光了。


談起長和,禤中怡的朋友交來一份admanGo的廣告開支調查報告,發現和黃旗下百佳超市和長實於上半年大增廣告開支19%和1.59倍,成功打入上半年香港10大最高廣告支出的第二和第九位,反映賣樓和賣雜貨食物同樣重要。但最大花費的廣告商卻是他的的兒子李澤楷旗下電訊盈科(008),涉及高達9,500萬元,增長63%。


不過,兩個傳統廣告大戶,滙豐銀行和麥當勞的廣告支出卻比去年同期有所下降,莫非看好後市,下半年才加碼?


另一個有趣現象是,半年新股興旺,共有三十多間公司在香港上市,為提高投資者的興趣,兼進一步建立知名度,其中不少在香港有業務的地產或零售公司在上市前的一個月都會大灑金錢賣廣告。


其中花費最高的首推碧桂園(2007),在2月及3月共花1,700多萬元,所涉金額是該公司去年同期廣告支出的5倍!難怪4月上市就有好表現,即使以昨日收市價7.27元計,依然比招股定價高出35%。


至於以Walker Shop品牌賣鞋的盈進集團(1386)也不遑多讓,5月的廣告金額已經比去年同期多9倍。另一間也是賣鞋的百麗(1880)更首度推出電視廣告,於5月合共在廣告花費逾400多萬元,是去年同期的四十多倍。兩間公司股價依然高於招股定價,莫非廣告效應如此神奇?


不過,且看稻香(573)在5月的廣告支出較去年同期大增逾1.7倍,奈何股價昨日只收3.05元,與招股定價3.18元比較,仍跌4%,即持續潛水也!



造紙股印銀紙
造紙是否等於印銀紙就未知,但幾隻造紙股卻上演一幕上升大合奏。由紙貿易進一步拓展至製造業的森信紙業(731)周一披露買入製造牛卡紙等產品的江蘇遠通紙業99%股權後,股價已展開升空之旅,估不到加上理文造紙(2314)業績對辦,令森信股價昨日暴升超過七成,股價迅即破1皮,曾高見1.61元,差不多大幅上揚近80%!收市仍錄得70%升幅,報1.53元,市值增至6.56億元。
理文造紙股價亦以接近全日最高位收市,報30.1元,漲11%。曾膺新股王的玖龍紙業(2689)也不

失禮,股價曾破23元,收市升6.79%至22.8元,成交額3.58億元。


森信紙業能夠有如此氣勢,相信拜紙品市場需求強勁,與及玖龍紙業這個範例所支持。不過,看到森信已發行股本才約4.29億股,但大股東自己都持有69.11%股權,即逾2.96億股,代表街貨流通量才不過1.32億股,當中有多少是自己友好捧場更屬未知之數,貨稀程度可見一斑,以該公司昨日成交量超過6,700萬股計,差不多一半街貨曾轉手,反映買盤意欲相當強勁,但大手交易有限,或者散戶已撤退,是否盡入強人之手?


查實這間已經有42年歷史的公司業績穩定,兼有息派。做紙品貿易行業,影響盈利變化的其中一個主要因素就是紙價,因邊際利潤變動有限,如紙價向上,即使銷量不變,每宗生意營業額亦跟隨增加,盈利也會水漲船高。投資這類股份時,需注意市場供求關係,如森信自己曾在06年的年報中指市場有多條造紙生產線投產,而在07年度中期報告亦指紙業供應過剩和競爭激烈,反映可能影響業績表現。


(7月18日刊於《am730》)

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