Thursday, July 26, 2007

恒指新高靠新貴

淡友昨日找滙豐控股(005)、中海油(883)、建設銀行(939)和工商銀行(1398)4隻股份來祭旗,就將恒指拉低逾97點,佔全日下跌110點的88%比重。


無疑,現貨月期指下周一結算,昨日成交合約逾7.5萬張,而8月期指交投亦增至超過2.3萬張,反映轉倉活動頻繁,可能對指數構成影響。要指數向下,滙控成主要目標,淡友竟能在開市即「質低」高達2.6元至142.7元,但血肉長城迅速湧出,大手掃入,部分金額以幾球幾球計(每球即100萬元),之後企在143元以上爭持,早上中段有一手62.9萬股湧入,做144元,交易額超過9,000萬元,為鎖定企高一級,隨即在144.1元再掃50萬股,盛惠7,200萬元,之後一直在144元附近買賣,但最終無法收復失地,跌1.5元,收市見143.8元,成交額56億元,成跌市主兇。


好淡角力,港股成交又達1,016.3億元,但大市能夠有如此氣勢,真的要多謝恒指服務公司改變計算方法,緊跟內地熱,才可以讓恒指有今日強勁表現,或許間接削弱造淡能力。


恒指服務公司於3月12日起加入中國人壽(2628)和中國工商銀行(1398)兩隻國企股後,國壽股價於加入前,即3月9日的收市價才21.5元,若果與昨日收市價32.75元新高計,國壽股價已累增達52.3%之多!至於工商銀行加入恒指前的股價只有4.4元,雖然昨日跌至4.9元,在過去4個多月也累計上升11.36%。恒指隨後於6月4日又增添中國平安保險(2318),在成為恒指新貴前,股價為47.05元,昨日更逆市攀上65.8元新高,在短短個多月間,累積上升39.8%!


這3隻股份於5月中時,佔恒指比重才7.55%,但這些重磅股對恒指的貢獻絕對不小,皆因屬於業務增長強勁(平保話盈利升1倍,工商銀行話中期盈利將增長五成以上),試問有那些藍籌股能有如此表現,而之前的歷史數據已經過時,故此吸引投資者吸納,股價向上,自然推動恒指向上。更重要的是,恒指服務已準備在8月10日又檢討指數成分股,故此大家又要開始尋寶,當中有36隻候選國企股可隨時變恒指新貴,會否再加中資銀行股如交通銀行(3328)和招商銀行(3968),或加隻玖龍紙業(2689)呢?


對沖基金搶灘
英國對沖基金RAB Capital用1,300萬英鎊(約2億港元)上月購入以香港為基地,有5年歷史的Pi Invesment後,已從總部倫敦抽調員工來港協助擴展集團首個海外據點。RAB Capital只有8年歷史,但增長強勁,截至6月底管理的資產總值已達67億美元(約522億港元),而近期就在亞洲進行兩項收購。該對沖基金肯遠道而來,行政總裁Philip Richards的答案與同行相類似,雖然日本和南韓市場很重要,但主要還是看中內地市場。


至於資金絕無問題,Hedge Fund Research(HFR)一份報告發現,第二季有587億美元(約4,578億港元)流入對沖基金,僅比首季創新高金額略低,當中投入基金中的基金(Funds of Funds (FOF) )更比首季急增1倍至7,450億美元新高,令對沖基金總資產更達1.74萬億美元!


對沖基金於第二季平均回報增4.77%,當中新興市場回報8.85%更佔鰲頭,今年以來更已升14.75%,由於亞洲就是新興市場之一,難怪他們也要做過江龍,要來搶一份。


(7月27日刊於《am730》)

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