Monday, July 30, 2007

看清趨勢更重要

上周三提到「屢破高位 小心變麻木」,早已聞到「血腥味」,估不到上周四金管局的任總於其專欄也提醒投資者要注意後,上周五全球大市急速向下,齊摔一交,今次又是美國次級按揭危機拖累,兼且來得兇狠,殺股民措手不及,之前還談到次按問題像針「拮一拮」,叫大家注意這個負面因素,今次這支「大針」便拮得更厲害。


面對市況逆轉,投資者亦無需擔驚受怕,如積金局的宣傳歌:「淡淡定有錢剩!」首先,得分開從長短線來看,若果跑短線,就要檢查本身投資組合,順勢而行,要斬的就不要回頭,損失有限,若果持長線,就要看看未來1年經濟趨勢,不應因一時的波動而隨便改變自己的看法,畢竟歷史會不斷重演!


其實,新興市場在這場資金撤離戰中的跌幅更驚人,在上周短短兩日,如巴西Bovespa指數便從高位回落6.5%,俄羅斯RTS指數則跌6.3%,南非Ftse/Jse SA所有股指數亦累跌5%,而越南胡志明股市自本月10日反覆向下,合計已跌了逾8.7%,相對歐美股市,跌勢更勁。


為甚麼要提到新興市場股市呢?其實,所謂高風險高回報,大家又知不知道,其實在今年上半年以來,越南股市累升36%,而巴西Bovespa指數亦有22.3%增幅,惟一跑輸只是俄羅斯RTS指數。因為指數累積升幅不小,掉頭向下已屬必然,最重要的是,究竟是基礎因素全部變壞,抑或是真正調整,否則大手拋貨,然後見到人家在低位入市,便錯失機會。禤中怡覺得看大環境變化,更可能找到機遇。


美國財長保爾森很醒目,跌市日即場解畫,兼公布經濟增長強勁,實行棄車(樓市)保帥(股市),但調整恐非一兩日結束。市場擔心投資次按的對沖基金可能會進一步惡化,但其實去年就有83隻對沖基金倒閉,涉資達350億美元(約2,730億港元),如炒天然氣價格大損手的Amaranth,當時大家像現時一樣憂心忡忡,但之後美股卻續創新高,怎解?


赤柱快有渡輪
最近香港不再是「霧都」,維港夜景格外美麗,令港人重拾自豪感。


在這個美好的天氣下,禤中怡也不放過這個機會,當太陽威力略為減退後,乘坐百萬名車(巴士也!)去赤柱走一趟。那座社區會堂兼圖書館的建築物有點日本建築風格,與區內環境配合尚未距離太遠。


穿過購物區,看見一片大海,以往的街市重新規劃,甚有氣氛,望著天空慢慢變色,找來一檔小食亭,生啤才十多塊錢,老外至愛,禤中怡卻喜歡那些咖哩魚蛋,5元5粒,不貴。原來這個稱為小賣亭的地方雖坐擁海景,但似乎仍規劃為街市般,竟有菜檔!據聞已結束營業。難怪,特區政府不懂改變思維,就像在岸邊另一邊興建球場,莫非叫遊客去踢波?不懂得做不重要,最重要懂得找那些合用之人,快點找盛智文吧!


美利樓燈色依舊,旁邊的碼頭已落成,尚待啟用。其實,只要利用這個大海,真的商機處處,觀光船這種產物定必是遊客喜愛的活動之一,只要善用,又可多撈一筆旅遊收益。禤中怡了解,快有輪船公司開辦新航線,相信又是另一新賣點,大家靜候消息吧!


最後,禤中怡為《am730》兩周年,講聲:「生日快樂」。



(7月30日刊於《am730》)

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