Friday, July 27, 2007

墨西哥成英雄塚

期指下周一結算,好友讓淡友食尾胡,港股又要調整,恒指只跌150點,跌幅僅0.64%,不算多。有好友趁期指轉倉,趁勢做即日鮮,玩細期,跟勢走一轉淡倉,只要跌百多點便走人,一張執千多元,不用擔驚受怕,因為每點只要十蚊雞,上落殺傷力相對有限,始終是富貴險中求,今次求得到,又賺一頓豐富晚飯。


不過,有風險不代表等於冒險,前者是計好數,如出現最壞情況應怎樣辦等考慮清楚,像市況逆轉,就不要拗氣一樣。禤中怡見到聯想(992)話走去北美洲的墨西哥設廠,心裡就涼了一截,因為香港上市公司在當地損手的多,成功個案就似乎未見。


最經典的是當年偉易達(303)收購美國朗訊,接收位於墨西哥的工廠,以為是筍貨,因為與營業額貢獻最大的市場、即北美洲,夠近也,運輸成本必低,兼享北美自由貿易協定的優惠,消除貿易壁壘,豈知事後才發現墨西哥生產成本竟是內地,特別是珠三角地區的3倍,就是計及省下來的運輸成本,也根本無從競爭,之後就要經過一番折騰才能擺脫惡運。


至於德昌電機(179)於04年為重組墨西哥製造業務,將生產設施遷往內地,中期業績已顯示遣散費及其他費用達1,000萬美元(約7,800萬港元),認真慘烈!當然,也有幸免於難的個案。創科實業(669)曾收購的一間瑞典公司,原本有意於墨西哥開廠,但及後發現當地工人的工資,等於美國工人的80%,遠高於內地;最重要的是,當地支援工業不足,零部件缺乏,相反在內地生產,雖然付運期較長,但長遠計依然有著數。


聯想今次如此有信心,相信必有「妙計」存在,如距離客戶夠近等。不過,除此之外,實在看不出有甚麼好處。若果怕產品腐爛,需盡快到達銷售地點就無話可說。此外,儘管生產邁向自動和機械化,但仍講求工藝技術,中國工人身在世界工廠多年,技術應可看高一綫吧!由於電腦今日已成消費品,生產成本真的能夠與內地生產設施相比嗎?


任天堂業績好 獎金收到手軟
禤中怡曾於4月初提及任天堂(NINTENDO)有前景,皆因人手一部,業績怎會差,原來揭盅後盈利升幅高達4倍,認真威威!


公司業績好,員工也可受惠,原來在日本今年企業夏季獎金排行榜中,任天堂公司的員工於夏季獎金便榮獲全日本第一!由於NDS和Wii兩部遊戲機的銷量佳,平均每名員工的獎金達到1,694,060日圓,折合約11萬港元,好過出雙糧!至於奪得第二位的,就是剛壓倒美國通用汽車(GM),成為全球第一大車廠的豐田(TOYOTA)也,但所得獎金平均較任天堂的少264,060日圓(約1.7萬港元),即約10萬港元。


由於日本企業一般分為年中(夏季)和年末(冬季)兩次派發獎金,大企業一般全年獎金總額,分分鐘可以高達月薪的4個月,真的令人羨慕不已。


一般大學畢業,剛進入社會的,月薪可能只有20萬日圓(約1.3萬港元),假設任天堂一般員工加入公司一年後,月薪亦只有22萬至30萬日圓(約1.4萬至1.96萬港元)的話,那份獎金就認真重要,畢竟當地生活水平非低,食碗拉麵都要800至900日圓(約52至59港元)啦!份薪水好快消耗掉,所以獎金絕對是不可忽略的。


(7月28日刊於《am730》)

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