Friday, August 17, 2007

瘋狂的估值

見到全世界一齊沽貨,悲壯場面難得一見。之前專家們的甚麼看好經濟前景,本地基調良好,有內地因素支持等等,都要先放入雪房,皆因走貨更重要,避免落後於人,畢竟大家都怕蝕底。


全球股市重創,即是話,將資金投資各地股市,以為可以達致分散風險的作用,原來也是一場夢。或許再把部分資金投向債券市場吧!但次級按揭債券價格又挫,甚至評級有「AAA」的也遭唾棄,反映又有機會損手,究竟怎樣才算減低風險呢?莫非又要買商品、買樓、做定期存款等等多元化投資,方能將風險減到最低呢?


早排市場熱衷資源股,市面充斥很多突然話轉型的上市公司,這邊話去開礦,那邊又話搞石油,有些更神奇,買塊地去種樹,總之全球資源缺乏,做點資源生意總有著數。


東潤拓展(467)剛加入資源類俱樂部,規模更是非同小可,用高達72.88億元向大股東張宏偉等收購United Petroleum全部股權及其2.68億元股東貸款。該股用1.61元發行45.2億股新股支付總代價。該集團同時批13.74億股新股,集資21億元新錢,代表公司開動印股票機解決一切煩惱。在牌面上,其他小股東看來很著數,因為停牌前公司市值才121億元,現在購入的東西,相等於市值的60%,你話公司規模壯大多開心。更重要的是,股價昨日復牌後,竟然逆市狂升,曾經急漲42.77%至2.57元,收市報2.45元,大升39%,輕易成為全日升幅之冠,帳面賺到笑。


有趣的是,United Petroleum持中國渤海灣盆地一個油田項目的分成權益,只要幫中國石油天然氣集團提高採油量,便可分享所增加石油量的60%,認真和味,但細看之下,United Petroleum方於今年2月初才展開為期兩年的試驗期,更要承擔全部測試費,盛惠不少於1,600萬美元(1.24億港元)。


即使試驗理想,又要國務院有關部門審批,總之手續仍多,估計「計劃中的主要部分」將為期3年,還未計其他非主要部分所需時間,計一計,無5、6年都休想有成果可見。此外,又要裝置新設備,話雖中國石油天然氣集團願意支付部分投資,但只佔其中的30%,即東潤又要再輸血,解決餘下七成的開支。


這個夢幻般的投資項目,但交易究竟能否成事,其中一個先決條件,就是獨立估值該項目需不少於78億元。


這類專業評估,絕非禤中怡之輩可以計算得到,就如當年科網股熱潮,一個網站尚未啟用,動輒估值10億、8億元一樣,投資者買10%股權就請拿出逾億元支付,那時亢奮之情景,今日好像重臨大地。


(8月17日刊於《am730》)

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