Thursday, October 19, 2006

馬沙的投資心得

禤中怡的Blog經常有Blog友談論投資心得,其中知名財經Blogger馬沙的comment一向精闢,近日馬沙兄將其投資「心法」在其Blog內(http://charblogger.blogspot.com/)公開,禤中怡看後覺得內容甚有意思,在現時股壇風高浪急之際,更值得與《am730》的讀者分享,故特別情商馬沙兄,特以版面刊出他的「心法」,內容如下:

中環博客CentralBlogger是馬沙每天必看的Blog!講到交流投資心得,馬沙也很想將自己的差勁心得分享。只可惜馬沙近日因忙於照顧初生(3星期3日)兒子及愛妻,加上工作異常忙碌,相信很難將投資決定一一寫上。馬沙投資股票已近10年,藍籌股、三四線股仔、IPO和warrant都玩過,長線短炒,樣樣試過,經歷1997及2000年股災洗禮,沒有欠債已算萬幸。經過多年股海浮沉,馬沙悟出以下心訣:
1)財不入急門:越想賺快錢,死得越快;
2)永不貸款炒股:欠債時心理壓力大,影響決定;
3)永不炒warrant:馬沙依據讀書時學習(BlackScholesModel)warrant的定價及計法去炒賣,最終發覺warrant的巿場價根本不是根據公式計算,而是受到街貨量及warrant商加印等不公平條款影響。
4)先認知,再投資:不買不熟的股票,所以馬沙現在最愛銀行及保險股。
5)小食多滋味,多食壞肚皮:馬沙由「沙士」後開始,從不同一時間持有超過5隻股票。學WarrenBuffett(編者按:美國股神巴菲特)話好好看管籃子中的雞蛋好過。
6)長線vs短炒:兩者都有其好處,不宜同錢鬥氣。買入任何股票前,先要決定長線或短線。切記不可在買入後長轉短或短轉長,此乃小股民大忌。
7)貪字得個貧:定下止蝕並嚴守止蝕;
8)高位出貨計數:股市像人生一樣,有起亦有跌。若大市在高位,應出貨計數。通常清貨後有約半年時間慢慢在低位再選新貨;
9)目標要踏實:馬沙每年的投資回報目標為本金之15%,不要以為很低,在複息增長計算下,每年平均回報15%已很可觀了。再者,大部分基金長線都不能達到每年平均15%回報率。

根據馬沙以上的心訣,馬沙已於大市超越18,000點時將大部分股票沽出,增持手頭現金,靜待大市回落時買特價貨。手頭最後一隻持有的建設銀行(939)祈望能在工行(1398)IPO前後,再試高位於3.8元沽出。 至於工行,馬沙一於響應「萬人圍(工)」,馬沙申請25手,為太太申請35手,希望每人坐二望三,相信上市當天有25%回報吧!P.S.馬沙要保住初生小兒奶粉錢,今年投資較保守,現時只有14%回報,望沽出建行及工行後能提早達標(15%)吧!

看過馬沙兄的投資心得,禤中怡也有所領悟,並寫下點點讀後感,希望與馬沙兄及讀者分享。就是看似平常的投資大道理,在實際執行時,很多時會受到外在環境影響,若果投資人把持不定,便很難對應有的投資紀律持之以恒,說到底,其實最考投資者的,並非甚麼技術分析或是投資技巧,反而能夠嚴守投資紀律才最考投資者,禤中怡亦自知未夠班,早前亦曾受到嚴峻考驗。

早前我和太太曾經抽到招商銀行(3968)新股,由於一早已訂下短炒策略(因深覺股市近期升得有點出人意表,已令我對大市產生看不清之感,而且由於招行並非最心儀的銀行股,故為免分心,早於股票上升至11元左右,已沽貨離場。)而在夫婦同心的家庭理念下,太太的那一手亦跟隨我的投資決定而沽出。

但其後太太眼見招行股價尚有餘力,便曾不只一次出言指禤中怡「睇錯市、賺少咗」。(招行昨曾高見11.74元,收市報11.68元,跌6仙。)

老實講,太太無甚投資經驗,她對投資風險與股價表現的相連關係的認知少之又少,但她有的就是家裏權威人士身份,她的切身之言,威力及份量對於如我般的“家中阿四”(第一是小豬、第二是太太、第三是印傭姐姐、第四有發言權者才輪到我)來說,確是有一定壓力的,故近日我也曾經自問是否真的「睇錯市」呢?

不過,我最後還是不畏強權,對家裏的權威人士力陳本人的投資策略及信念,雖然可能她仍覺得我只是自說自話,但作為負責任的投資人,我認為恪守正確投資態度,確是沒有退讓餘地的。

(10月19日刊於《am730》)

21 Comments:

At 5:05 PM, Blogger 馬沙 said...

禤中怡兄您好,

謝謝您將小沙劣文於今天《am730》賜刊.

對於 "知名財經Blogger馬沙" 的稱呼, 小沙實在受不起, 小的實為一般小投者而已!!

 
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中怡先生似乎欠馬沙少將一餐飯喎。

 
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