Thursday, October 05, 2006

大摩謝國忠離巢之謎

星級分析員買少見少,1997年加入摩根士丹利的前董事總經理兼亞太區經濟學家謝國忠(Andy Xie),上周正式與大摩結束賓主關係。但對於謝國忠突然呈辭,兼迅速離任的消息傳出後,震驚整個財金界及傳媒界,而當事人至今尚未正面回應辭職的原因,亦未有透露日後的去向,但坊間對於這個突如其來的消息有很多不同見解及流傳,一時說他將轉職其他大行,有說他將轉做基金經理云云。

而昨日financeasia.com一篇報道亦認為謝國忠突然離職,確實內有文章。話說事情牽涉謝國忠一封內聯網電郵,而這封於9月18日發出,並以主旨「觀察新加坡國際貨幣基金(IMF)年會」的電郵,「極速」在區內的基金經理以及銀行界人士中廣泛流傳。

謝國忠於電郵內提出為何IMF年會選擇在新加坡舉行,並嘗試找出原因。他提出究竟是沒有國家有興趣舉辦?或是因為新加坡事前唱好工夫「十分落力」?他指新加坡不如印度或是中國般,欠缺熱門話題談論,而人均國民收入(per capita income)過去多年亦未有大幅增長,相比中國同期卻有顯著升幅,直言在上海或是孟買舉行該年會更為適合。

他亦列出不少新加坡經濟並非如想像般好的原因,並涉及一些可能非法金錢的來往,而這封原只限於在大摩公司內傳送的電郵,最終為何外洩,則不得而知。但內容足以令大摩與新加坡的關係變得尷尬。大摩發言人回應時指,「電郵內容純粹是個人意見,不代表集團意見」。

究竟這封在年會後有感而發的電郵,是否足令謝國忠因而呈辭,就無從得知。事實上,新加坡是大摩重要發展的市場之一,近年亦為新加坡做過不少「大刁」,如建設銀行(939)上市前,便引入新加坡淡馬錫斥資14億美元(約109.2億港元)入股建行。上月淡馬錫發行10億歐元的債券,大摩亦有份負責。

謝國忠於上月中在新加坡仍接受傳媒訪問,估不到事隔半個月已正式離開大摩,還有兩個月發放花紅亦無福享用,繼瑞銀林奮強及滙豐張一鳴後,星級又敢言的分析員又少一人!

入口球員,出口球賽!
近期在台灣,如果你怕與當地人談政治,話不投機半句多,或是害怕因說錯話而被人暴打或暴罵一頓之險,不要緊,不妨與對方談美國職業棒球賽的紐約洋基隊,不論挺扁或倒扁的,都會與你談過興高采烈。無他,因為台灣人王建民成為當地棒球班霸紐約洋基隊的明星投手。現時全台都一片王建民熱,一提到他就甚麼挺扁倒扁都忘記了。

王建民是被美國球探發掘到美國的職業棒球員,在過往兩年於美國職棒浮浮沉沉,但今年這位台灣投手發威,全季取得19場勝投賽事,並列美國東岸的勝投王。

何謂「勝投」?就是先發投手在一場球賽中,帶領球隊贏得整場賽事,凱旋而歸。但若先發投手未投滿五局,就從後援投手中找出最有貢獻投手成為勝投,而贏出場數最多的投手自然被封為勝投王。

由於這次輝煌賽績,令台灣人感到非常驕傲,因此亦令台灣掀起了史無前例的棒球熱。由於台灣和美國紐約有12小時時差,所以近期台灣人因看王建民賽事的直播,而「國寶」(即熊貓眼)數目大增,也是可以理解。

由於美國的運動項目不像歐洲的足球具有全球普及性,因此美國運動產業現時是靠入口海外出色球員,希望掀起當地的熱潮,然後再賺紀念品、門票等方面的巨大利潤。好像上世紀八十年代,美國職業棒球聯盟入口日本球員,由於棒球始終是美國的地位高,日本球員在當地有好成績,自然令日本人感到光榮,掀起日本的美國職棒熱潮。現時台灣的王建民效應,原理也是一樣。

NBA(國家職業籃球賽)打入中國市場,用的都是類似手法,美國NBA球隊入口王治郅、有移動長城之稱的姚明,打的都是這個算盤。不過,王治郅在美國成績很難看,幸好姚明為侯斯頓火箭隊帶來的商機十分可觀,根據最新《福布斯》的數字,火箭隊的老闆因姚明帶來的中國商機,財富增加了12億美元。可以見到,入口球員不但沒有爭當地球員飯碗,而且還可透過出口球賽而令當地球員能得到更多無形利益(即在其他國家、地區增加曝光率)。看來,有更多中國和台灣球員,進軍美國職業賽事是遲早問題。

(10月5日刊於《am730》)

10 Comments:

At 7:41 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

日本職棒的80年代好像怪怪的
因為野茂是90年代才去MLB的
不過台灣人的熊貓眼並不會增多
因為通常都是早上七點開始打,時間剛剛好
(台灣早上七點,紐約晚上七點)

 
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