Tuesday, October 10, 2006

YouTube收購戰還有好戲

禤中怡曾講過,YouTube即使有幾大商機也好,都未必益到散戶,因可能未捱到上市就已被大公司收購,最後獲益的是其創辦人及投資YouTube的創投公司Sequaio Capital。不幸禤中怡烏鴉口言中,Google傳出會用16億美元(約124億港元)提出收購,微軟、雅虎及Viacom均曾派人同YouTube傾合併。看來要等YouTube IPO上市賺一筆的希望已越來越渺茫。

不過YouTube被看中收購又很合理。禤中怡曾講過,YouTube人紅是非實多。創辦Broadcast.com,後來將這盤生意賣予雅虎的業界先驅Mark Cuban(現時為美國NBA球隊達拉斯小馬班主)便曾批評有些人將有版權的片段放上網,YouTube的業務模式同之前網上音樂軟件Napster的運作模式無分別,故此若有荷李活片商或有妒忌YouTube的人打算告YouTube侵犯版權一點都不出奇。所以YouTube盡快找個大碼頭泊岸,有彈藥應付日後可能出現的巨額訴訟也是很合理。雖然YouTube未上市,收購不用在紐約交易所「打餐死」,但收購戰不會只有Google用十幾億美金收購了事那麼簡單。因為目前網界三大巨頭,Google、雅虎和微軟打個不亦樂乎,YouTube投向那個陣營很大程度上,會影響3大網站未來的人流和前途。特別是「塊餅」越來越大的網上廣告市場。大家想一想,如看完Youtube段片後插條廣告,特別是好像巴士阿叔般,全球都有收視率的短片加插廣告,廣告費將會有多貴?所以不會只得Google叫價,只不過不知微軟和雅虎提出甚麼價錢給對方。所以這場收購應該好戲在後頭。不過,肯定的是雅虎未必有那麼多銀彈去爭YouTube,大家試想雅虎剛用10億美元(約78億港元)向Facebook「提親」,目前Google有93億美元(約725億港元)可用,還有擁有Windows這個印銀紙產品的微軟。如YouTube爭奪戰最後變成銀彈戰,決賽大家不用估也知是Google與微軟之爭。

證監會出招監管網上財經資訊
繼早前互聯網討論區發起組織「快閃輪姦黨」,被裁定有違公德行為罪名成立,成為本港首宗在網上留言而被入罪個案後,大家知道互聯網的「威力」。禤中怡最近聽聞證監會開始監察所謂投資討論區,查看有沒有無牌人士提供投資建議。早前有一個投資討論區《車手投資網》(driver-sky.com)受到有關監管機構通知,要申領投資服務牌照才能作出投資建議。

又有圈內流言,指網上知名的《港燦筆記》http://kong-chan.blogspot.com/ 的網主港燦兄由於對某隻股票作出分析,雖無意圖建議其他網民購買,但是有網民跟進其分析而買入,最後該股因業績不理想而股價大跌,令港燦兄深感內疚,最後更暫時擱筆。另外,中環圈內傳聞港燦兄抱恙。事實上,網上言論對社會,或股市與散戶的影響,已經非常廣泛。例如有報章由專人採集網上言論作為新聞,令網上言論的影響力進一步加深。

其實,不管是網上留言所作的投資建議,在電視,甚至在報紙提供的所謂「投資意見」,股民也應作分析,否則投資失利就影響心情。現時證監會對網上言論似乎執行得非常嚴格,但要真正保障投資者利益也不是易事,所以大家對無論有牌或無牌的人士所作的建議都要小心處理。

(10月10日刊於《am730》)

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