Monday, January 27, 2014

阿里炒冷飯

甚麼是你追我趕?且看騰訊(700)入股華南城(1668),每股2.2元買入,直至上周五較收市價3.77元即獲帳面回報仍達71%,那邊阿里巴巴集團索性買殼,將中信21世紀(241)據為己有。
阿里巴巴集團同雲峰合作買中信21世紀,但其實雲峰也是阿里巴巴集團主席馬雲有份投資的。交易採用中信21世紀發行大量新股方式,一下子膨脹高達1.18倍,且每股配股價0.3元較交易前收報0.83元足足折讓達接近64%,那麼大小股東的權益豈不是被大幅攤薄?
此外,由於大發新股兼股權變動,理應向所有股東提出全面收購建議(General Offer,GO),原來好戲在後頭。配股價雖低,惟股價在公布翌日表演逆流而上的財技,收市漲3.7倍,至3.92元,即使真的要GO,相信亦難有股東響應。
見到這種財技,以及科網熱潮升溫,有種似曾相識的感覺,不禁想起在15年前的「1186」,就是得信佳,其實就是今天的電訊盈科!小小超率領精英,將北京盈科中心注入該殼內,而收取之新股數目竟是原有的10.5倍,而為免股份過分集中,又另配售新股予獨立第三者,兩項交易的新股作價較之前收市價折讓達約54.4%之多!觸發股價之後大升,未有跌穿該價,而日後鯨吞香港電訊已是後話,而阿里今日的財技操作,何其相似。
當年科網潮有多厲害?
在2000年上市的36.com(8036)(該上市編號於去年由晶芯科技控股使用),由大班鄭經翰等創辦,該入門網站於當年3月啟用,7月便招股上市,當中最有趣的是,在風險因素部分,竟話:「該集團日後之經營虧損可能會增加,而本集團亦可能永遠無法賺取或保持盈利」,認真坦白又可愛,最終真的不用等了。
另外,劉德華於2000年代夥拍中建電訊(現稱中建富通(138))合作拓展andylau.com,又可成為炒作好對象。
數經典之作,非中建電訊斥1億元入股mingpao.com10%股權,即該網站總值10億元!今日持有該網站的世界華文媒體(685)市值約40億元,網站又值多少?
今日市場由網站轉向手機遊戲,而電子商貿又成新寵,O2O等科網詞語湧現,相信在這些實際業務需求刺激下,熱潮尚未冷卻,但當一間虧損的礦業股突然轉型去做網上商店賣貨,更大談業務前景有多秀麗時,相信屆時大家便要小心了。
至於那個O2O模式,英文其實是Online To Offline,說穿了,又是新舊經濟配合而已,網上買貨後,再去享受產品和服務,故物流成為兵家爭奪之地。
那麼稍後物流股會否反過來,發展網上銷售業務去幫股價增值呢?

(1月27日刊於《am730》)

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