Monday, November 25, 2013

同新股計數

嬰兒失蹤,叫人心痛,社交網絡已傳送相片,未知作用有多大,但守望相助的心,香港從來未變。本來特首肯主動走出來呼籲,警方積極跟進,肯定可加分,畢竟香港不能容忍這種情況吧!這類事件一次也嫌多。
言歸正傳,臨近年底,各地新股趕尾班車,下周台灣一口氣有9隻新股搶掛牌,而新加坡IPO(公開發售)市場於上半年才有8隻上市,但下半年走勢已迅速升溫,直至本月中經已有17隻之多,足足比上半年多1.1倍。
香港更勝一籌,計及轉板、介紹形式上市和新股集資在內,已有55隻股份登陸港交所(388),同樣,上半年僅有17間公司掛牌,而轉戰下半年至本月中,經已有38隻上市,相信大家承接股市氣氛好轉,加上退市似乎難即時執行所帶動。
那麼長揸新股有好處?在55間上市公司中,竟然有多達30間於上周五止仍潛水,佔比54%,可謂接近一半一半,但若果押錯注,損失可以相當驚人,當中以1及2月上市的公司竟然全軍盡墨,部分累積跌幅更相當恐怖,如榮陽實業(2078)已合共跌了57.3%之多,今年頭炮的迅捷環球(540)也蒸發了39%市值,而1月31日上市的中鋁礦業(3668)也較招股定價損失37.1%之多。
有趣的是,迅捷中期盈利已下降,榮陽7月已發盈警,而中鋁礦業虧損則擴大,難怪股價難有起色。
那麼上市首日潛水的,又能否逆轉過來?在28隻首日無升跌及收市較招股定價為低的新股中,至今仍然未能浮上水面的有15隻,佔53%,可見機會又是接近一半一半。
為甚麼要提新股,皆因愈近年尾,定必陸續有來,否則除了重新將整盤帳目計算過來外,亦要配合氣氛,特別是美股創新高,大市熱情高漲,再配合內地改革之聲,好像利好因素完全掩蓋,一點看淡的也欠奉。
上周有招股超額倍數稱王的米蘭站(1150)指,大股東獲獨立第三者接洽購股。的確,該股由大股東持逾72%的控制性股權,兼且規模細細粒,而且業務又單一,認真「乾淨」,適合做殼。
該集團大股東兼主席姚君達若能以上周五收市價0.96元賣殼,依然拿回多達4.69億元現金,與近期殼價相若,成為大贏家。
可惜,該集團股價於上周五收市價仍然較兩年多前的招股定價1.67元累積下跌了多達42.5%,其他接貨的股東便捱蝕至今,而累積只收取了3.39仙股息,根本抵銷不了帳面虧損,或許要等買賣真的落實,睇新投資者的功力了。

(11月25日刊於《am730》)

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