Monday, November 18, 2013

三輸

通訊局最終維持混合式處理3G頻譜續牌事宜,即現有營辦商需把三分一頻譜交回作重新拍賣,除可能引入新競爭者,亦讓現有營辦商再爭奪收回的頻譜,究竟是市場維持現狀,抑或多一間新經營商?禤中怡料中資電訊商有興趣分一杯羹,反正投資額佔整個集團比重不大,相反以本港為主要市場的營運商本身在營運規模已相對處弱勢,計數後,出手競投恐難跟上。
本來這是預期之內,且看數碼通(315)股價在過去半年間由5月16日的13.94元,跌至上周五的8.98元,足足蒸發了多達35.5%,至於還持有固網業務的流動通訊營運商和記電訊香港(215)亦於半年間累跌31.7%,而按香港電訊(6823)上周五收報6.49元計,同期也失去19%,與同期恒指累計微增0.21%比較,明顯他們的表現遜於大市,儘管現有營運商用顧問報告作抗辯,亦難阻政府決心。
政府還刻意表明與電視發牌的機制不同,可惜沒有解釋兩者決定方針不同的原因,無疑令人憂慮政策執行一致性,持續性原則,日後商界恐更無所適從。
估不到的是,政府執行政策不對稱的做法迅速蔓延至保險界這個保守行業。見到蘇黎世保險上周與代理一番折騰後,肯定一句:三輸,公司、代理和客戶均飽受困擾。
禤中怡了解所知,該公司還與代理高層商討明年大計之際,卻改變遊戲規則,確實突然,之後又欠缺善後政策,例如辦公室所簽長期租約亦可能提早結束,是否為此作賠償呢?兼且在不足兩個月內要解決所有過渡問題,顯然與一間穩健保險公司的處理手法格格不入。
此外,因為保險生意非單純買賣交易,與客戶牽涉的時間較長遠,即使純粹改制,客戶定必受影響,因為單靠服務熱線,電話筒的另一把聲音可能次次換人,分分鐘趕客。
那麼其他保險公司又是否需轉型呢?且看英國保誠(2378)上周說,憑藉與內地的緊密聯繫,年初至今年度,本港保費等值增長達23%,主要反映代理隊伍的生產力。至於宏利(945)指,第三季旗下香港保險銷售額5,900萬美元(4.6億港元),較去年同期增長7%,因期內代理人團隊進一步壯大,分紅及危疾產品銷售均錄升幅。
藍籌友邦保險(1299)更厲害,新業務價值較去年同期升26%至3.79億美元(約29.5億港元)。最重要的是,該集團於第三季,來自專屬代理分銷渠道的貢獻,竟佔新業務價值的71%,是整體新業務價值增長主要動力。
究竟蘇黎世葫蘆裡賣甚麼藥,無從得知,只見亞洲保險市場有發展空間,偏似急於離場,實在令人費解。

(11月18日刊於《am730》)

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