Wednesday, April 27, 2011

淡風隱隱吹

港股反反覆覆,恒指在這個月似乎未有突破方向,昨回落130點至24,007點,本月至今仍有2%升幅,而國企股指數於本月以來也有1.8%進帳。期指轉倉,昨日有11.3萬張即月期指合約成交,而直至上周四有8.28萬張未平倉合約,相信昨日已有不少轉至5月再戰。

不過,見到美國聯儲局主席伯南克將露面解畫、歐洲債務問題未解決,加上5月屬傳統淡季,種種消息確為淡友製造反攻機會。即使相對好景的內地市場亦不好過,且看中國人壽(2628)首季純利大跌22%至79.7億元人民幣,當中資產減值損失達15.6億元人民幣,但沒有解釋甚麼資產在此市道下需作減值,撲朔迷離。

再見到中國聯通(762)首季純利不見86%,更暗示上半年盈利難看好,反映這些藍籌股將拖累恒指,如果今日交成績表的農業銀行(1288),以及於周五公布首季業績的3間國有銀行藍籌股稍有閃失,恐怕有準備要迎接淡風了。
不過,金融市場仍好景,投資賓架朋友剛轉投歐資行,禤中怡邀吃飯難過登天,佢話上班不久便忙到透不過氣,無他,近期市場熱門的資本項目正是他的管理範圍,就是發債也。

之前提到多間上市公司發票據、債券和可換股債券(CB),賓架朋友像背資料般話,市場有多暢旺?單是今年首季,內房股在市場已集資60億美元(約468億港元),而內房股於去年全年在債市抽水總額才70億美元(約546億港元)而已,豈不是一季便做了去年整整一年生意額的85%?可見忙碌之程度。

賓架朋友亦同意禤中怡早前提到,公司趁息口仍低企時先作安排,畢竟息率預期向上的機會率有所提升,而另一個造成一窩蜂的原因,就是擔心SUPPLY RISK,供應風險也。佢話若果資金被市場逐步抽走,當公司要集資時,想找到足夠投資者捧場兼獲優厚借貸條件的籌碼便少了。

此外,就是季節性因素,原來有些美國的機構性投資者對參與這類投資產品有要求,如發債企業需有核數師報告等,故不難發現公司發出業績報告後集資,否則相隔一段時間後才抽水,可能少了一批大客支持了。

難怪昨日復星國際(656)要發美元優先票據,而富力地產(2777)旗下附屬也要發票據搶逾40億元了。

朋友又話,見到內房股向市場頻頻集資,大家可能以為皆因內地銀行收水也,查實非國企的內房企業最受影響的,就是申請建築貸款,而買地始終靠自身資本的機會較高。對於年息動輒逾10厘,他說道,買地成本佔整個項目約四成,故將集資所得用作買地的話,利息成本實質只佔整個項目的百分比僅屬單位數,細數也。

更重要的是,有些內房商採取像工廠生產般的流水作業式營運,回籠資金快,然後再投資下一個項目,故吸引這些企業向市場借錢鎖定用5年了。

(4月27日刊於《am730》)

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