Wednesday, April 06, 2011

人行幫內銀增息差

禤中怡周日走去海港城,只見人頭湧湧,方記起內地連續放假數天,自由行朋友又往名店消費。內地股市於今日假後復市前夕,中國人民銀行又先出招加一年期存貸息0.25厘,相信已屬大家共識,驚訝程度不會太大。

有趣的是,人行只將活期存款加0.1厘而已,相信可進一步刺激存戶改向定期存款埋手,畢竟3個月定存息也有2.85厘,讓游資進入銀行體系內。此外,貸款年息則是短期加0.25厘,3年以上的只加0.2厘,但1至3年期的卻加0.3厘之多,至6.4厘,變相讓存貸息差略為擴闊0.05厘,至1.65厘。

難怪早前各內銀股巨頭均認為,淨息差有增長空間,即使調高存款準備金率也不怕,因為定存整體金額或受惠加息而提高,令可供貸款的資金能力沒有被大幅削弱,同時又加貸款息,內銀股淨利息收入自然水漲船高。

當然,日本央行像洩洪般大印銀紙救市,內地央行收緊銀根也屬正常,避免經濟再熱起來,而市場料已消化加息消息,恐怕淡友也只能打游擊而已。

其實,美國大印銀紙,讓美國企業經過兩年多的「醫治」,「體質」逐步復元過來。統計標普500指數的上市公司,已坐擁高達1.9萬億美元(約14.8萬億港元)現金,部分大企業單是由08年中以來,便再累積了3,000億美元(約2.3萬億港元),令手上握有9,400億美元(約7.3萬億港元),故他們正面對如何運用這些資金的煩惱。

第一種解決方法就是再投資,故不難見到併購不停,Mergermarket便指首季併購額比去年同期漲28%至5,910億美元(約4.6萬億港元),為07年以來最大。

另一種就是回饋股東。首季在標普500指數成份股中,便有117間公司願意增發股息,所涉金額更是破紀錄的166億美元(約1,290億港元),對比去年同期,僅有78間公司恢復或增派股息而已。金融機構復元較快,今年首季該類企業便增派股息70億美元(約544億港元),在標普500指數成分股增派息總額中,佔高達42%,像摩根大通就增派31億美元(約241億港元)股息。

那麼香港的境況是如何呢?禤中怡粗略計計,恒指45隻成分股的業績及派息表現,相信股東會高興看到,多達39間盈利上升或虧轉盈,即使有5隻盈利倒退,但仍有股息派,可惜富士康(2038)令人最失望,由盈轉虧之餘,更是唯一無息派的藍籌股,恐怕下輪檢討藍籌股時,或成被剔出的熱門之一。

另一現象就是公用股雖多賺,股息多維持不變,有些藍籌股的股息增幅更較盈利升幅為少,像部分內銀股和內地保險股,相信為應付人行抽緊銀根的資本需求,但華潤創業(291)盈利漲94%,全年股息只略多6%,表現令人失望。當然,居安思危屬正常策略,奈何見到不少藍籌盈利創新高,儲備豐厚,故不妨多派股息,讓股東分享成果,免得像特區政府般,等股壇長毛發難吧!

(4月6日刊於《am730》)

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