Wednesday, March 30, 2011

專業投資的盲點

首季在悲哀中度過,敬請大家繼續為日本東北和雲南盈江大地震作捐輸,有錢出力,有力出力,兩樣都無,則默默送上祝福也是美事。至於投資市場經歷金融海嘯後,竟活生生地望著一場真的「海嘯」湧過來,股市急挫,無形之手又印銀紙,讓各地股市回氣,像恒指昨收報23,060點,相較去年底收報23,035點,反而微增0.1%,國企股指數更早於上周突破去年底收市價12,618點,以昨日收市報12,920點計,回報更約2.4%。重災區日本日經平均指數昨收報9,459點,與去年底的10,228點比較,仍未能收復失地,累計回落7.5%。

倒不如談些有趣現象。投資因素日趨複雜,話說專門提供財經資訊服務的湯臣路透(Thomson Reuters)推出一項新服務,稱作「NewsScope Direct」,專門針對英國倫敦和美國芝加哥的外匯和期貨公司,特別是進行「高頻交易」的金融機構,即是在短時間內進行大量交易,可能藉交易差價賺取回報,而決勝之道就是一個字:「快」。該服務便聲稱,能透過機器將新聞、事件,以及經濟數據快速整合後提供給客戶,在有關訊息反映在市場之前,已讓這類交易商能快人一步作出不同交易策略。

當然,通訊社收到資訊,已屬公開,故不相信存在內幕交易問題,但機器怎樣評斷一單新聞對有關公司的影響呢?畢竟投資存在人為因素,連英國《金融時報》評論都話,過去也傳彭博想建立一套提供「買」或「沽」的訊號,但如一間企業公布去年業績符合市場預期的同時,卻又話看淡明年前景,那麼應叫「買」還是「沽」呢?

要將事件建立關連性以作出投資決定更易見趣怪場面,且看博客Dan Mirvish將奧斯卡頒獎禮主持之一的安妮夏菲維(Anne Hathaway)與美國股神巴菲特(Warren Buffett)拉上關係,原來每當那位靚女明星在新聞媒介中露面時,股神旗下巴郡(Berkshire Hathaway)的A股價格竟然會跟隨上升!

這位有心人絕不吹噓,自行做統計,去年2月8日由夏菲維有份主演的《緣滿情人節》上畫,當時巴郡A股便升1.01%;隨後於3月5日,她的另一新戲《愛麗斯夢遊仙境》開畫,該股亦增0.74%。去年11月,當《愛情戀上癮》在戲院播映時,巴郡A股的升幅更厲害,當日便漲1.62%,即使這位可人兒只是做奧斯卡主持當日,也「帶挈」巴菲特的投資旗艦價值提高0.25%。不難發覺,這種巧合情況可能在於兩者也有「Hathaway」,莫非機器閱讀新聞時,只見這個字便聯想到巴郡?究竟是完全巧合,還是專業投資的盲點?

曾幾何時,李嘉誠入股嘉盛控股,現稱中聚雷天(729),為投資者提供追捧對象,股價曾炒上2.7元,之後輾轉回落至2月21日的0.86元,更悲壯的是,該股由該日起一直停牌至今。若有追隨者因超人而投入重注,可能發現,此「嘉盛」絕不是彼「嘉誠」了。

(3月30日刊於《am730》)

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