Wednesday, February 09, 2011

息差收窄內銀謀對策

踏入兔年,恭祝讀者身體健康,生活愉快。為何不是恭喜發財?因為有健康的體魄,工作和投資都能保持清醒,而生活快樂,對賺蝕看得輕,當有回報時,滿足感油然而生,豈不是已發大財?

中國人民銀行也向內地投資者「拜年」,即深滬股市春節假期休市最後一日,先送上一份大禮,就是調高利息,比市場預期於本周末加息提早來臨。上證綜合指數在農曆新年前夕,經已錄得5連升表現,人行是次出招,相信可收冷卻今日開市的投資氣氛之效。可惜,加息這個利淡消息早為市場的共識,當這個不明朗因素消失,相信大家反可擺脫陰影,或許人行行長周小川提早出手,反變成股市推波助瀾的好幫手。

望望過去1年,人行無論出手加息,抑或調高存款準備金率0.5個百分點,可謂難以預測實際日期,因為曾在周二、周三、周五出手,甚至選擇去年12月25日聖誕節當日,即周六公布加息,反映投資者炒貨幣政策著實不易,但從趨勢看,收緊銀根屬正常,畢竟應付金融海嘯後,如不煞煞車,仍任由經濟高速前進,真的有可能車毀人亡。

記得人行於去年10月加息時,其中半年期存款息加幅不及貸款息,令存貸息差擴闊,而去年聖誕節才開始將存貸息差收窄,但幅度仍算溫和,那麼今次會否再一次優待內銀股呢?

細心一看,過去兩次加息活動中,均未獲垂青的活期存款息,人行是次上調0.04厘,至0.4厘,以去年12月底內地活期存款逾12.5萬億元人民幣計,即每年需多付50億元人民幣利息給存戶,相信內銀股應付也綽綽有餘。

不過,除1年期存貸息加0.25厘外,其餘各期存款加息幅度均較高,如3個月、2和3年期定存息實際加0.35厘,比去年12月25日同期息率加約0.3厘的幅度為高。

至於長期定存息的增加幅度更厲害,如5年定存息一下子加0.45厘,至5厘水平,而自去年10月重回加息周期以來,在短短3個多月時間,累積更已經加了1.4厘之多,讓資金回流入銀行體系的誘因進一步提升。

另一方面,貸款息率調高幅度卻不及存款息,如是次由6個月至3年期貸款只調高0.25厘,而3至5年期貸款息亦只加0.23厘。至於5年期以上貸款息更僅獲增0.2厘,形成5年期存貸息差一下子從1.85厘,大為縮減0.25厘,至1.6厘水平。

記得中信銀行(998)發盈利預喜時,表示受惠淨息差顯著提升所致,若人行未來繼續採取收窄存貸息差的話,反映銀行存貸息差收窄,銀行便要想法子,難怪近期內地傳媒報道,部分銀行取消房貸息率優惠,變相加按揭貸款息以應付這種趨勢,兼可迎合中央調控樓市的政策。此外,相信銀行還要著力開拓其他非利息收入來源,才可抵銷利息收入增長放緩的影響。

(於2月9日刊於《am730》)

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