Wednesday, April 13, 2011

富豪注資招式有異

港股開市裂口跌161點,之後一直走低,因日本核事故升至最高級別,為淡友帶來反攻機會,恒指無法守住24,000點,收市跌326點至23,976點。

不過,市場未見恐慌拋售,成交額才逾825億元,而即月期指收報23,968點,較現貨低水僅8點,相信大家已習慣這個消息,甚至屬預期之內,奈何累升不少,調整難免,加上負面消息又湧出來,如油價回落、國際貨幣基金組織(IMF)話,內地和香港的資產泡沫可能爆破而發出警告。IMF又向中國獻計,呼籲上調利率,並增強人民幣匯率彈性。細心看,該論調確有似曾相識的感覺,不就是禿鷹國常掛在咀邊的口頭禪?

上月正當大家憂慮超人旗下和記黃埔(013)竟把部分港口資產重新包裝後,分拆往新加坡上市,變相「肥水流向別人田」之際,他又將內地物業粉飾一番,同樣以收取穩定回報方式在港招股。當然,和記分拆上市的和記港口信託收益率約5.8%,比匯賢(87001)預測收益率最高4.26%為多,但若人民幣升值,計及匯率因素後,匯賢隨時跑贏對方,相信不會讓香港人失望吧!

最重要的是,本港沒有商業信託,超人卻敢於往外國試新產品,而本港更從來沒有人民幣計價股票,但竟然成功推出,若超人這個匯賢真能掛牌,更創本港先河,反映他願意為未來作假設,再進行挑戰,往往有機會先突圍。

有趣的是,未知是否超人還有精湛預測能力,在匯賢公布招股前夕,中銀香港(2388)於月初突降人民幣清算戶口實際息率,由0.865厘減至0.629厘,引發本港部分銀行調低人幣存款息。對息率敏感的投資者而言,若為手上人民幣作投資選擇,是否對匯賢有優勢呢?當然,存款和買房地產信託基金絕對是兩種不同產品,畢竟後者有下跌風險。

另一富豪李兆基也選擇斥百億元,以每股58元行使由恒基地產(012)發行的紅利認股權證(879),為恒地泵入新水。由於恒地向全部股東發行的認股權證涉4.29億份,若最後全數獲得行使,恒地便可集資高達近250億元資金之多。

可惜,行使價較昨日收市價54.75元還高5.9%,要其他投資者捧場不易,該認股權證由上月日均數百萬份成交,驟增至上周三近4,000萬份,而昨日成交仍有1,488.7萬份,證價昨隨正股回落而大挫19.1%至0.76元,實行當窩輪炒,但小心到期日屆滿而不行使便變廢紙。

從超人的舉動或許也可作假設,就是用財技向市場拿錢,勝過舉債,因為憂慮借錢的利息未來或會高於股本回報率,畢竟新興市場加息壓抑通脹後,歐洲亦展開加息行動。至於李兆基也選擇要股份方式向恒地注資,也反映中期靠銀行融資可能不易,或成本向上。

雖然現時有美日超寬鬆政策,但中期收緊銀根始終存在風險,故金管局出手叫銀行小心亦不無道理,儘管銀行無降低貸款審批標準,但抵押品質素問題會否變壞,確不能不防。

(4月13日刊於《am730》)

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